It’s Not About Poland

The Pentagon’s reported decision to halt the deployment of 4,000 rotational US troops to Poland comes as an unwelcome surprise in Warsaw. It also caught Congress and other officials in Washington off guard. The details and reasoning behind the decision have yet to become public, but it has so far been couched in the broader approach that the current US administration is taking with the American military presence in Europe. 

The latest US move follows White House statements skeptical of NATO’s value and regular ally bashing that has already caused heartburn in Warsaw. On top of all this, the Polish government is working to resolve the delicate issue of a former justice minister, wanted for alleged misuse of public funds, who made his way to the United States after being granted asylum in Hungary. Any further bilateral tension emanating from Washington is bound to test the durability of the stalwart commitment of Poland, the “model ally”, to the relationship.

Since the recent American decision to cut its troop presence in Germany and not station Tomahawk cruise missiles there, Polish politicians have been arguing to make their country the location for those troops or those from elsewhere. Indeed, a poll conducted in March and April shows that Poland remains the onlyEU member state in which a majority supports hosting US bases. 

Strong relations with the United States still pay political dividends, and the number of American soldiers in Poland, roughly 10,000 on rotations that cause the number to temporarily fluctuate, is a political football. Most are deployed under Operation Atlantic Resolve, a NATO operation launched in 2014 to deter potential Russian aggression against the alliance. 

Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz’s initial comments on the cancelled deployment were understated. He portrayed the move as one not specifically directed at Poland. Prime Minister Donald Tusk described it as a logistical snag in rotation timing that will potentially result in only a temporary dip in troop numbers. He also claimed that it will not affect Poland’s security.

Whether or not the decision is aimed at Warsaw or part of a broader reorganization of US forces in Europe, it does affect Poland’s security. The surprise announcement itself has strained the relationship. Warsaw was already nervous about the transatlantic relationship, and developments like this one are highly sensitive. 

The cancelled deployment may indeed not be aimed at Poland and be a part of broader repositioning in Europe, but Washington’s growing record of foreign policy whims rattle Central Europe. Even recognized model allies are struggling to keep US ties fruitful.

There is a temptation in Poland’s politics to make the American troop presence a zero-sum game, thereby decoupling the country’s security with that of its neighbors, particularly Germany (but in other cases Ukraine). But US forces throughout Europe may yet yield benefits for Poland since the country’s security is tightly linked to that of Germany and Ukraine. Any abrupt withdrawals of US forces from Europe, particularly as Russia continues its war of aggression, leave Poland less secure.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.