An Existential Stress Test for Türkiye’s Political System

Many observers of Turkish elections have argued over the last decade that the races were competitive if unfair. The opposition always had a chance to win, as occurred in municipal elections in 2024.

It would be a stretch to make that argument today. A recent Turkish court ruling annuling theresults of the 2023 congress of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and replacing its elected chairman with his predecessor, who had been defeated at that gathering, has thrown the organization into chaos. But the judgement has an even more profound consequence. It places competitiveness within Türkiye’s entire political system in doubt.

The court’s decision follows the arrest of several CHP municipal leaders, including Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s popular mayor, whom the party had been grooming as its next presidential candidate. Ankara’s mayor, Mansur Yavaş, has not been detained and no judicial proceedings against him have begun, but he is the subject of multiple investigations. These developments are signs that upcoming elections may be neither fair nor competitive.

Türkiye’s allies are watching with concern, but there is not much they can do. The EU has little leverage since Türkiye’s accession process is de facto suspended. In addition, the country’s role in maintaining European security in an increasingly tense geopolitical climate has priority. Criticism from Brussels, therefore, will be muted. Across the Atlantic, the current US administration does not prioritize democratic principles in its foreign policy. Little pushback can also be expected from Washington.

Türkiye’s allies and partners cannot and should not turn a blind eye to events in the country. But they should avoid a rupture with Ankara. Cooperation with Türkiye will inevitably remain crucial, if transactional, in the near future. Those allies and partners should not use the shortcomings of Türkiye’s democracy to dismiss the country’s pursuit of its legitimate national interests, particularly in areas where broad domestic political consensus exists. Türkiye’s friends can instead play a positive role by maintaining engagement with all of the country’s political actors, not with just the government. Ultimately, Turks will set the course of their nation’s political future.

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the modern Turkish state and the CHP, once said, “There are not hopeless situations, there are hopeless people.” Turks struggling to preserve their democracy are certainly not among them.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.