An Unfolding Disaster in Germany

Sunday’s state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin were a disaster for Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christan Democratic Union (CDU). The voters delivered a brutal indictment of their performance in the national government. Coming just two weeks after the political earthquake when the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) almost won an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt, this was the catastrophic scenario the Chancellery had feared and puts Merz’s hold on power in peril.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD came first with a record vote at almost 44% while the CDU fell to a historic low of barely over 17%. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, it was on top again with 38%. The CDU came fifth and did not clear the 5% threshold, thus failing to make it into the next parliament—the first time this has happened to the party in a state election since the Second World War. Berlin voters did not provide any consolation as the CDU slid below 19%, behind the far-left Die Linke at almost 27%. The AfD did not lag much, having increased its score to 16%.

The latest votes made clear that the Saxony-Anhalt result was not an anomaly but instead the start of a trend in the east of the country. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern saw the AfD top a state election there for the third time. Contrary to what is sometimes assumed, the issue for the CDU is not that it never put down roots in the east—it has governed Saxony continuously since reunification and it led Saxony-Anhalt for decades—but rather that its roots there have disintegrated. 

In Berlin, a related story played out. Die Linke nearly doubled its vote share and came out on top for the first time. It could now lead a coalition government in the capital. The party’s performance was built substantially on public anger over the cost of living and housing rather than any embrace of its wider ideology. It secured nearly half the vote among those aged 16 to 34. 

The scale of the electoral shock for Merz and the CDU was reflected in the unprecedented decision for a chancellor to speak live to the media about the outcome of state elections shortly after the polls had closed. 

Merz pledged to double down on his government’s course of major reforms, but whether he and the CDU still have the political clout to do so is in doubt. The question is whether a chancellor so thoroughly stripped of political authority still has any leverage—especially with a government coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), that is equally weakened and determined not to go down with the CDU. The SPD may not sign off on welfare cuts or market-oriented overhauls that alienate what is left of its own shrinking base.

The latest election results further fuel the debate over whether the CDU might replace Merz as chancellor with another party figure—a situation that threatens to turn him into a lame duck. The fissure inside the party has widened significantly, leaving rivals, such as Prime Ministers Hendrik Wüst in North Rhine-Westphalia and Markus Söder (of the Christian Social Union sister party) in Bavaria watching closely.

In the east, the CDU is being crushed from both sides, losing protest voters to the populist parties while losing pragmatic ones to entrenched state premiers of other parties who run powerful local political machines. Meanwhile, leaning harder into right-wing rhetoric continues to alienate moderate voters in the west and major urban centers.

Merz may not be the only one to blame for the government’s problems, but ultimately this is all happening on his watch. And, even for the most optimistic politicians in the CDU, there is no silver lining to be found.

The argument that going into the next federal contest under a damaged chancellor will guarantee defeat will gain great traction among CDU leaders. Elections are next due, in western states, in early Spring 2027. Another electoral setback would almost certainly mark the end of Merz’s tenure.

For Germany’s Western allies, including the United States, the latest election results and its domestic paralysis are alarming. A situation in which the chancellor fights a desperate battle for his political survival paralyzes Europe’s primary economic engine and growing defense actor. 

Meanwhile, although the AfD and Die Linke are in many aspects very different, they share a skepticism of Germany’s policy of supporting Ukraine. They also advocate an improved relationship with Russia, with the AfD hoping Germany would then again be able to import cheap gas from there. 

All this comes at a time when NATO navigates increased Russian hybrid threats along its eastern flank and Ukraine faces a critical moment ahead of its fifth winter under wartime conditions.

Sunday’s elections in Germany marked another step away from the comfortable stability of the old Federal Republic. Merz may insist that he will stay the course but how long he can stay in office is now an open question. 

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.