Pedro Sánchez Hits the Wall

Following two weeks of mass protests over affordable housing in Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced a snap election for November 29. The move follows widespread demonstrations following the recent eviction of 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal from the Madrid apartment in which she lived since 1956. With banners reading “Not one Maricarmen more”, protestors demanded emergency measures to strengthen tenants’ rights and curb evictions and unaffordable rents. Abascal was allowed to return home, but by then a broader movement for housing and social reform had emerged. Rallies spread nationwide, as did calls for wider action on rents, evictions, landlords with large holdings, and housing policy. A weak Spanish government that has not passed a budget since 2023, is beset by corruption allegations involving the prime minister’s wife and brother, and mismanaged this summer’s migration crisis in the African exclave of Ceuta was put on the defensive.

The governing coalition, led by the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), quickly adopted two emergency decree laws, but parliament rejected them. The center-right People’s Party (PP), extreme-right VOX, and the separatist Junts (Together for Catalonia) sank the legislation. The PP, which governs Madrid, had itself recently faced public outcry and protests over housing, prompting the capital’s regional government to sell a luxury €6.3 million penthouse recently purchased as a “temporary workspace” for its president. Average house prices rose 37% in the Madrid region and 36% across Spain between 2021 and 2025. Rents rose by an average 28.5% nationwide between 2015 and 2022, with particularly sharper increases in large cities. 

The snap election could alter Spain’s international posture. Current polls largely suggest that a PP-led government would depend on VOX. Such a coalition would likely adopt a more conventionally Atlanticist and less confrontational tone toward the White House while maintaining strong support for NATO and Ukraine. Whether the PP would seek to preserve what Spain calls its “exemption” to NATO’s 5%-of-GDP defense spending target is unclear. VOX would likely press for higher military expenditures, closer alignment with the Trump administration, a more pro-Israel stance, and hawkish migration and return policies. A coalition including VOX would therefore be markedly closer to a Trump administration than a government led by the PSOE or PP alone. 

Announcing the snap election, Sánchez argued that a more stable governing majority was needed to implement reforms. The move therefore holds a broader lesson for Europe. As their majorities thin, centrist parties, given their increasing reliance on fragile coalitions with those with whom they share few policy positions, struggle to uphold a firewall against the extreme right and institute overdue structural domestic reforms. The window for the political center to deliver is closing.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.