With Less Than Two Weeks Until the US Midterm Elections, All Eyes Are on the Senate

Nov​ember​​ ​3, Election Day in the United States, promises to be a grim day for Republicans. At this stage, the only question is how bad it will get.

Republicans are now almost certain to lose their House majority. ​​The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved the ratings for nearly 30 House seats in the Democrats’ favor. Cook’s most recent estimate is that when the 120th Congress convenes in January, Democrats will hold a House majority of between 224 and 234 seats.

Capturing a majority in the Senate has long been viewed as a higher bar for the Democrats, largely because many of the competitive races are in states that Donald Trump won handily in 2024. Still, several recent surveys, including those from the New York Times/Siena University​,​​ showed Democratic candidates either leading or tied in five crucially important red states​.​​ Among them was ​Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.

President Trump’s sagging job ratings have weakened the Republicans’ prospects. Trump’s average ​approval ​rating now stands at 38%, 12 points lower than at the start of his second term. With Americans increasingly worried about the economy and rising prices, just 35% approve of his handling of the economy, down 24 points since shortly after he won the presidency in 2024.