On December 9, 2015, the GMF Warsaw office hosted a public event titled “From Assurance to Deterrence: NATO After Paris” that explored NATO’s possible positions on key challenges in the run-up to the Warsaw Summit in 2016. Taking part in this discussion were David Shlapak, senior international research analyst and co-director of center for gaming, RAND Corporation; Karl-Heinz Kamp, president, German Federal Academy for Security Policy; Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski, coordinator, National Security Section, National Development Council; and Pierre Vimont, senior associate, Carnegie Europe (France). The event was moderated by Michal Baranowski, director of the GMF Warsaw office.
The conversation began with Mr. Shlapak, who, in answering what bolstered deterrence would look like, discussed recent war games conducted by RAND that simulated a NATO response to a hypothetical advancement of Russian forces in the Baltics. He noted the importance of European allies to clearly convey their security needs to the United States in order for the Alliance to be prepared with the best possible response to potential security threats. Professor Żurawski vel Grajewski echoed this statement while assessing the significance of a greater NATO presence in the Alliance’s northeastern European territory to the Russian government, as well as gauging the future of broader NATO-Russia relations.
In response to questions on what is necessary on the political and economic sides in enacting effective deterrence in Europe, Mr. Kamp and Ambassador Vimont provided analysis on the European Union’s perspective. Mr. Kamp explained the skepticism of western European leaders on integrating Ukraine into institutions such as NATO or the EU, while Ambassador Vimont underscored the priority of France’s in upholding the Minsk ceasefire agreements signed in early 2015.
The event closed with an active conversation between the speakers and audience, whose questions throughout the event spurred an insightful discussion, leaving the door open for further engagement as the 2016 Summit in Warsaw approaches.