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Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business

Pese al optimismo de la política, Jacob Kirkegaard, del centro de estudios German Marshall Fund, considera que Global Gateway no es una alternativa sólida a la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china y no puede competir con esa iniciativa de Pekín. Afirma que la estrategia de la Unión Europea no está teniendo los resultados concretos necesarios para ser “una competidora seria” ante la Nueva Ruta de la Seda. Para Kirkegaard, el “problema” es que el club comunitario “no suele querer prestar” para que se puedan realizar los proyectos que los países de bajos ingresos desean construir. Alberto Ángel Fernández, Ralph Gonsalves, Charles Michel y Ursula von der Leyen, en la cumbre de la CELACEFE/EPA/Olivier Matthys No obstante, el analista manifiesta que Global Gateway continuará existiendo en el medio y largo plazo, pero “principalmente como postureo ético” del club comunitario. “Realmente no abaratará las infraestructuras para los mercados emergentes ni reducirá la influencia de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china”, comenta sobre Global Gateway. En opinión de Kirkegaard, la repercusión de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china disminuirá “debido a la menor voluntad china de financiarla, no a las acciones de la UE”. “La infraestructura de la Unión Europea seguirá siendo financiada principalmente a través del Banco Europeo de Inversiones en todo el mundo”, expone.”

Translated from Spanish
Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business Ukraine Reconstruction

Turkey’s trade with Russia nearly doubled last year to $68.2 billion, feeding U.S. suspicions that Moscow is using Ankara to bypass Western sanctions. Turkey says the increase is largely due to higher energy costs. Their relationship is often characterized as transactional. Despite being on opposing sides in fighting in Syria, Libya and the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have cooperated in areas like energy, defense, diplomacy, tourism and trade. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said the relationship’s dual nature dates back to the sultans and czars. “Sometimes they compete, sometimes they cooperate. At other times they both compete and cooperate at the same time,” he said. While the pendulum seems to have swung in Ankara’s favor for now, Unluhisarcikli noted the Kremlin has a few levers to pull, such as canceling a deferment of gas payments or removing financial capital for the Akkuyu nuclear plant being built by Russia. Moscow also could hurt Turkey by restricting Russian tourists, who visit in greater numbers than any other nationality. offering a steady flow of cash. “How much weaker the relationship gets depends on how Russia responds to Turkey getting closer to the West,” he said.”

Global Implications of China's Rise Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business

THINK TANKERS TAKE: “The strategy sends a clear message that Germany’s approach to China has changed. China is now seen as more of a challenge and a threat than as an opportunity,” Noah Barkin, who focuses on China-EU relations at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Berlin Bulletin. He added: “The fact that the government has spelled this out in writing is important for the debate in Europe given the mixed signals that have been coming from Berlin.” But there are still open questions: The key issue is “implementation,” Barkin said. “The government is determined to reduce its dependencies on China and diversify to other markets. But will the German companies that are heavily dependent on China pay attention to this message?””

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