Skip to main content

The German Marshall Fund of the United States

  • Who we are
    • Programs
      • Alliance for Securing Democracy
      • Asia Program
      • Balkan Trust for Democracy
      • Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation
      • Congressional Affairs
      • Europe Program
      • Fund for Belarus Democracy
      • Future of Geopolitics
      • GMF Cities
      • GMF Digital
      • Leadership Programs
      • Mediterranean Program
      • Security and Defense
    • Offices
      • Ankara
      • Belgrade
      • Berlin
      • Brussels
      • Bucharest
      • Paris
      • Warsaw
      • Washington, DC
    • About Us
    • Marshall Plan
    • Our Partners
  • Experts
  • Events
    Jan
    25
    Upcoming Event

    The Future of Transatlantic Security: Leaders' Roundtable

    January 25, 2021 | 9:00AM to 10:15AM EST
    • Major Conferences & Forums
      GMF brings together hundreds of policymakers, elected officials, academics, and business leaders from around the world to discuss topics from energy to migration, economics to security, urban growth to diplomacy.
    All Events →
  • Our Work
    • Topics
      • America
      • Asia
      • Europe
      • Cities and Regions
      • Security
      • Trade and Economies
      • All Topics
    • Research
      • Publications
      • Transatlantic Takes
    • Perspectives
      • Audio
      • Video
      • Blog post
      • In The News
  • Stay Informed
Policy Paper

The Double Bypass: How the United States and China are Routing Around Each Other and Transforming the Liberal Order

October 8, 2013

Mark Leonard

Theorists of international relations have laid out two elegant scenarios for the future of Western liberal order: A positive one where rising powers such as China are welcomed into existing institutions and eventually socialized into upholding liberal norms, and a negative one where liberal powers fail to adapt and the new pretenders seek to overturn the order and develop competing institutions. But as China and the United States face off in the messy reality of the international system, it is becoming increasingly clear that neither scenario is likely to take shape.

Seen from Beijing, there was never a binary choice between joining the institutions of the Western liberal order and developing parallel ones in China’s image. The Chinese leadership has pursued a carefully calibrated strategy of joining universal institutions, seeking to minimize the constraints they would put on China and developing China-led institutions that exclude the West.

Until recently, Western states put more effort into reforming and bolstering the universal institutions that they created and only acted outside them in extremis. But faced with gridlocked global institutions, they are increasingly mirroring China’s bypass diplomacy and creating new groupings outside of the universal institutions.

Rising powers joined Western-led institutions but regard them with suspicion and work together in a series of “post-colonial friendship associations.” The established powers, on the other hand, are disconcerted by their loss of control over the universal institutions and are increasingly flocking together into new communities of similar countries. This is creating a new liberal archipelago of organizations — from the European Union to NATO and the TTIP — that enshrine the principles of the liberal order in new ways.

Download

Download PDF

Explore:

Security and Defense Program
Asia Program
Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation

Our Organization

  • About GMF
  • Career Opportunities
  • Our Partners
  • Press Room
  • Support Our Work
  • Core Values

Our Work

  • Leadership
  • Policy
  • Civil Society
  • Research & Analysis

Our Experts

  • Find an Expert

Follow

  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Flickr
  • YouTube
  • Instagram
  • Diversity Statement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Credits

Stay Informed

Don’t miss out on the latest from GMF. Sign up to receive emailed newsletters, announcements, and event notifications.

Subscribe