Two Roads Diverge in the South Caucasus
Two roads diverge in the South Caucasus and the newly elected U.S. administration can take either one. On the one hand it can support steps for cooperation and can mark the very first example of the new world order by permanently ignoring the signals of domestic politics; or on the other hand it can prioritize domestic political pressures, thus contributing to fragility and instability in the region.
The election of Barack Obama in the United States created an optimistic global climate, particularly with those seeking multilateral settlements of international disputes. However, Turkey faces an important dilemma under a changing global environment. The current government hopes to improve relations with Armenia and diffuse the enduring security concerns of the Turkish electorate; however, these ambitions might be hindered by the potential passage of the Armenian Genocide Resolution (HR106) in the U.S. Congress.