Yermak Must Go
The Ukrainian corruption scandal that erupted on November 10—when it came to light that contractors of the state-owned nuclear energy company had paid $100 million in kickbacks to a “criminal organization” led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s longstanding business partner, Timur Mindich—is growing into the highest-profile Ukrainian corruption case since the Revolution of Dignity. Mindich has now fled the country.
This scandal has sharply undermined Zelenskyy’s approval among the Ukrainian public. MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, referring to three closed polls conducted last week, has said that following the investigation, Zelenskyy’s approval plunged nearly 40 percentage points and is now below 20%—the lowest mark since his election in 2019. Zheleznyak argues that, for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, more Ukrainians distrust Zelenskyy than trust him. Leading pollsters argue that Zelenskyy may never regain his former levels of popular support. But demonstrating to Ukrainians as much political accountability as possible and rebuilding trust with international partners remains as critical as ever amid Russia’s advances on the frontlines.
In discussions of the scandal among Ukrainian members of parliament, civil society leaders, and other key figures in Kyiv, there appears to be a widespread consensus that has two bookends.
On the one hand, even current government officials and Zelenskyy’s allies in the parliament acknowledge that the dismissal of two ministers was far from a sufficient response. To restore the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government in the eyes of the Ukrainian public and regain the trust of international partners, more officials at the very top will have to be fired. Zelenskyy’s political opponents are calling for the entire cabinet of ministers to resign. At the same time, they recognize that the government reshuffle will not fully resolve the problem, as the prime minister and her cabinet remain de facto subordinates of the Office of the President.
On the other hand, even the president’s staunchest opponents agree that Zelenskyy himself cannot be removed from office until the Ukrainian people have had the opportunity to vote in a constitutionally legitimate national election. Under the terms of martial law, Ukraine cannot hold a national election right now. But just as importantly, a potentially divisive election would provide a dangerous opening for Russia in its hybrid war.
The solution to this conundrum—how to hold the Office of the President accountable when Zelenskyy must remain in office as the constitutionally legitimate leader of Ukraine—is for Zelenskyy to dismiss Andrii Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. In recent days, the majority of Zelenskyy’s aides and allies in parliament have reportedly advised that he fire Yermak, a step that could be taken as soon as this week.
The root cause of this sprawling corruption scheme is the monopoly of power in the Office of the President. In the absence of sufficient checks and balances it has become the most powerful part of the Ukrainian government and the only real decision-making authority in the country, even though it is not established in the constitution as a separate state body and was created merely as a support structure for the President’s operations. Despite his appearance in the top five least trusted Ukrainian officials, Yermak’s outsized influence on Ukraine’s governance has landed him on global leadership lists. He was the only Ukrainian on Time’s 2024 list of the 100 most influential people worldwide, ranking 4th in Politico’s 2023 European power list and securing second place in its 2024 “Dreamers” category.
Yermak—whom Ukrainians, according to SOCIS’s September poll, identify as “the number one subject of corruption investigations most damaging to Zelenskyy’s public image”—has concentrated power by installing his friends and proteges in the leadership of the cabinet of ministers and other powerful roles throughout the government. Three of his current and former deputies—Oleg Tatarov, Andriy Smirnov, and Rostyslav Shurma—have each been the subject of NABU criminal investigations into grand corruption. Yermak and his associates consistently use their unlawful control over law enforcement agencies to cover up these and other high-profile scandals, disrupt independent anti-corruption investigations, blacklist political enemies for subsequent sanctioning by the National Security and Defense Council, conduct smear campaigns against democracy actors through anonymous Telegram channels, and intimidate leading anti-corruption watchdogs and independent media. Tapes disclosed by NABU as evidence in the Mindich case refer to the alias “Ali Baba”—whom Zheleznyak claims is Yermak—as a powerful official ordering the persecution of NABU detectives and driving the attempt in July to undermine the independence of the anti-corruption institutions. Yermak has also established unprecedented control over Ukraine’s foreign affairs by usurping the foreign minister’s central role in peace talks, monopolizing key personnel decisions in the country’s foreign service, managing Ukraine’s donor relations, and gatekeeping international partners’ access to Zelenskyy.
Despite never having been elected or appointed in consultation with parliament, Yermak remains the second most powerful person in Ukraine and arguably runs the country jointly with Zelenskyy. The unfolding corruption scandal has created a rare opportunity to push for removing Yermak, and Ukrainian reformers and international partners must seize it. For Zelenskyy to retain him after he has overseen a governing system that breeds corruption, and has cost Zelenskyy popular support, is an unacceptable absence of accountability—especially in a country that has proved it will defend its democracy and rule of law at all costs. To restore trust in the Ukrainian government, Yermak must go.
The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.