A Roll of the Dice

Three months into her tenure, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has made a bold political move. She announced the dissolution of the lower house of the National Diet and called a snap election for February 8.

The decision comes at a moment of her soaring popularity. Her approval ratings have remained consistently high in the last two months, hovering around 70% across eight polls conducted by Japan’s major media outlets. The Nikkei, one of Japan’s major newspapers, has likened her performance to that of two of Japan’s most charismatic recent leaders, Jun’ichirō Koizumi and Shinzō Abe.

Whether this popularity will translate into electoral success, however, remains uncertain. Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, also gambled on a snap election in October 2024 shortly after being elected as the new party leader, a move that ultimately cost the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) its parliamentary majority for the first time in 15 years.

Many observers view Takaichi’s decision as a high-risk move. Yet it is also entirely consistent with her bold, confident, and theatrical leadership style. At a recent press conference, she framed the election as an act of political responsibility, an “extremely difficult decision” but one necessary to “put her position as prime minister on the line” and to avoid “running away from difficult choices by postponing them”.

Beyond capitalizing on favorable polling, Takaichi appears intent on convincing voters that the LDP under her leadership represents a clean break from the past. In contrast to Ishiba’s cautious October 2024 statement—centered on national protection and short-term objectives—Takaichi, in her election announcement, adopted a language of transformation. Quoting Abe, her late mentor, she labeled the contest “the election to create our own future”, invoking the word “future” no fewer than 10 times. She also strove to mobilize younger voters by speaking of her desire to make Japan stronger and to ensure it remains a “safe and prosperous place” for future generations, perhaps echoing the rhetoric of the Trump administration. She closed her statement on an energetic and optimistic note, recycling several of her signature slogans: Japan as a “shining lighthouse in the Indo-Pacific”, the need to “unlock Japan’s potential”, and the promise of restoring “Japanese diplomacy that flourishes on the world’s center stage”.

Will this message inspire and resonate with voters? The election is a significant gamble at a time of widespread frustration over rising living costs and mounting geopolitical uncertainty. The performance of the newly formed centrist party, Chūdō(Centrist Reform Alliance), a merger of the former opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the LDP’s former coalition partner (Kōmeitō), will also be a factor. Chūdō, which was formed remarkably swiftly, could siphon off older LDP voters who may feel less energized by Takaichi.

If the current LDP-led coalition manages to reclaim a majority in the lower house, Takaichi’s administration would gain greater legislative flexibility. Failure, however, would further complicate policymaking and substantially weaken her leadership at home and abroad. With plans to visit Washington in March, revise Japan’s security documents by the end of 2026, significantly increase defense spending, and pursue assertive economic reforms, the political stakes of this election could hardly be higher.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.