Risk Assessment: Electoral Integrity in Moldova

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Introduction

Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine since February 2022 has not only destabilized European security but has also intensified hybrid threats across Eastern Europe. In the Republic of Moldova (hereinafter Moldova), Russian-backed actors have increasingly used disinformation, cyberattacks, and covert influence operations to undermine democratic institutions, erode public trust, polarize society, and weaken the pro-EU trajectory.

Moldova’s progress on the path toward EU accession, formally opened in 2022, has unfolded amid overlapping crises. The country has navigated severe energy insecurity following the abrupt reduction of Russian gas supplies, broader security risks amplified by the war in Ukraine, economic and social vulnerability (including due to climate change affecting agriculture), and polarization and political fragmentation. These pressures have tested institutional resilience and public confidence, making electoral integrity not only a matter of democratic legitimacy but of national stability and security.

The October 2024 presidential election and constitutional referendum brought the victory of the incumbent pro-EU President Maia Sandu and the adoption of an amendment to include the goal of EU membership in the constitution. While the election observation mission of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) noted well managed voting and free campaigning, it flagged the misuse of administrative resources, uneven media coverage, and foreign influence and interference.  The Civic Coalition for Free and Fair Elections deemed the process only partially free and fair, citing illicit financing, foreign intervention, and voter manipulation that “seriously undermined the integrity of the electoral process”.  The Constitutional Court validated the votes, but directed parliament to amend legislation to curb electoral corruption and the involvement of religious bodies in political activities.

In a June 2025 opinion poll by the International Republican Institute (IRI), for the first time in over 20 years of the organization polling in Moldova, 49% of respondents said they considered that the country was heading in the right direction and 48% in the wrong one.  Despite the small margin, the poll indicated that public support for the government’s reform agenda and EU accession is constant and even slightly consolidating.