Session Descriptions

A Grave New World: Future Global Security Challenges

In an increasingly interconnected world, today’s transatlantic security challenges are multi-faceted, widespread, and dynamic. The half-century-long bipolar world of deterrence has given way to a new security environment characterized by global hybrid threats and knock-on effects. Ongoing instability in the Middle East and North Africa, the destabilization of large swathes of West Africa, Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, and simmering tensions in South and East Asia all serve as palpable examples of this new reality. With many emerging crises taking place on Europe’s doorstep, questions of security and instability are affecting a greater portion of transatlantic dialogue today on local, national, and regional levels.

Guiding Questions

  • How will the shifting security landscape shape the transatlantic partnership and its existing security architecture?
  • How can Europe, the United States, and their global partners engage more effectively to deal with hybrid threats and unconventional challenges like climate change or cybersecurity while managing the conventional security landscape?
  • What are the requisite structures to develop and facilitate more comprehensive solutions and holistic approaches to security challenges?
  • How can the transatlantic community best manage and mitigate current crises while anticipating emerging threats, challenges, and opportunities?

 

Valuing Security, Securing Values: Countering Terror at Home

The horrific attacks in Ankara, Istanbul, Paris, San Bernardino, and Suruç have shaken the transatlantic community to its core, forcing its societies to reexamine policies that affect values, identities, and the ability to provide for their publics’ safety. While acts of terrorism perpetrated by radical ideologues are not new to the Euroatlantic space, the correlation between these heinous acts and violence outside of the Atlantic space is a wholly new phenomenon.

Extremist militants across the Middle East, and East, West, and North Africa continue to terrorize and displace local populations, exploit and exacerbate sectarian cleavages, and attract foreign fighters to the myriad “causes” driving their brutal ideologies. Social media has spread these groups’ toxic messages to the transatlantic population, increasing their ability to incite and project violence outside of the immediate zones of conflict within transatlantic communities. These realities have necessitated challenging conversations on extremism, migration, integration, equality, and security. The politics of the day have elevated these discussions to their extremes in both public and private discourse.

At the heart of these dialogues is the need to craft effective and holistic counterterrorism strategies within transatlantic societies. While Europe grapples with challenges to the spirit of Schengen, the cultural assimilation of immigrants into long-standing homogenous societies, and balancing individual privacy with current security threats, the United States faces a less immediate, but equally important challenge to the values it holds dear.

Keeping societies safe and secure is of the utmost importance, yet transatlantic policymakers and publics must also keep an eye on the values that underpin their societies. In the midst of this tumult, policies are often caught balancing between values and security. However, exposing this dichotomy, struggling with trade-offs, and understanding the implications of counterterrorism policies are critical.

Guiding Questions

  • What are the critical domestic components of an effective counterterrorism strategy today?
  • How do/will current/future counterterrorism strategies affect transatlantic societies and their values? Are these values being compromised? Is there always a trade-off between security and values?
  • How do transatlantic policymakers create resiliency in the international order in the face of terror? What are the roles of current institutions? What must societies do? 

Bumpy Road Ahead: Transatlantic Energy Security at a Time of Global Turmoil

Significant developments for U.S. and European energy are taking place outside the Atlantic Region. Market uncertainties, political and geostrategic uncertainties, and regulatory uncertainties will continue to redefine the global energy scene. The new global energy order could bring the transatlantic partners closer together or push them apart.

Asian economic growth drove the energy industry’s plans for expansion. But the low price of oil and shift in Chinese demand for commodities has changed the game. Europe and Asia now pay nearly the same price for natural gas, which could benefit Europe as it seeks to reduce dependence on Russian gas. But U.S. companies planned for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals expecting to benefit from high Asian gas prices.

Guiding Questions

  • Will Europe become a primary market for U.S. gas exports? Or will the low price of gas in Asia crush the business case for U.S. LNG exports before significant gas supplies reach Europe?
  • What impact will the climate commitments made at COP 21 have on energy markets? Will natural gas be a beneficiary of a move to lower carbon energy sources, or will accelerated deployment of renewables result in fossil fuels as stranded assets?
  • In the Middle East, tumultuous political dynamics could change established energy frameworks and return global energy security concerns to the center of the agenda. How will the availability of Iranian oil and gas affect global markets and transatlantic relations? Is current OPEC production policy setting the stage for the next oil price spike?
  • How can the United States and Europe shape the energy future and be a source of stability in this new order?

Getting to Equality for Women and Men

As long as work and family are considered “women’s issues,” neither women nor men can achieve equality or fulfillment in either domain. To respond to the continued “glass ceiling” for women and the widespread sense of dissatisfaction with the work-life balance in two-career families, and in order to create a more caring society, we must go beyond change within our current structures. We must transform gender roles for men as much as for women, reinvent both the family and the workplace, and place caregiving on an equal status with competition.

Guiding Questions

  • What changes in culture, business, and law are best suited to bring about this transformation?
  • What’s in it for men? 

Europe’s Multiple Crises: Where is the Way Out?

The recurrent crises plaguing Europe appear to be digging the European Union institutions and governments into a hole. Rather than being a force projecting stability beyond its borders, today Europe is becoming a source of disorder even as it seems unable to manage the chaos elsewhere. The complexity of these internal and external crises has obscured the ability of the EU to find solutions, and the absence of solutions is undermining solidarity and fueling ad hoc responses. EU integration is another victim. That Europe thrives on crisis is an oft-used expression. But is it wishful thinking?

Guiding Questions

  • Can Europe find a way out? If so, what would be the single priority to be addressed?
  • What are the solutions? Who has stakes in them and can push decision-makers towards them?
  • How is Europe viewed in the United States, as a partner or problem? 

Global Economic Shifts and Power Relationships 

Over the past few decades, the international economy has undergone a major shift: the emerging economies’ share of global GDP has grown from 25 percent in 1980 to 40 percent today. This has started to have important political implications, including for the future of the international order. The developing world, and in particular China, is increasingly influencing global economic governance structures, seeking reforms to existing international institutions and establishing new ones, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These global economic shifts also have political and security implications, including in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, all of which are seeing global norms tested.

At the same time, the emerging international economic order is proving politically vulnerable, including for the new arrivals. Falling commodity prices, limited global demand, and the structural slowdown of China’s economy have raised new concerns over the past year about the emerging economies’ ability to contribute to global growth, even as economies in Africa and South and Southeast Asia are showing greater promise. What do these developments and transitions mean for the international economic and political order?

Guiding Questions

  • In terms of both economic and political power, are we set for a post-Western world? Or do the vulnerabilities of the emerging economies suggest a different kind of international order?
  • What are the implications of new institutions such as the AIIB — and demands for greater representation in existing institutions such as the IMF and World Bank — for global governance?
  • How can complications arising from further global economic integration, the preservation of a liberal order, and concerns about national sovereignty be resolved? How is economic globalization being tested by the constraints and challenges posed by political globalization?

Jobs and Growth Across the Atlantic

Although the recovery from the great financial crisis of 2008 has been steady — especially in the United States — it has left deep scars on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, unemployment numbers are down, but the quality of new jobs and lagging wage increases have tainted the overall picture. The viability of the American dream is increasingly being questioned, as many Americans for the first time believe that future generations will be worse off than today’s. In Europe, the unsolved economic crisis has exhausted many countries and brought the eurozone area to the brink of collapse. In addition, austerity measures and stricter budget rules in response to the crisis have put pressure on established social welfare systems. Europe’s social contracts are being questioned, and unity through prosperity is increasingly being questioned. Both sides of the Atlantic are left wondering, if we are simply witnessing an unusually deep dent following a severe crisis or whether the lack of economic growth, good jobs, and increasing wages has become a structural problem. Both sides of the Atlantic are struggling to remain competitive in the global economy, as well as in developing the skills and talents that will fill the jobs of tomorrow.

Guiding Questions

  • Where will robust and durable growth come from? Where will good jobs come from?
  • Are investment initiatives, such as the EU’s Investment Plan for Europe, sufficient or are broader systemic changes needed?
  • In times of a squeezed middle class, and increased economic uncertainty, how do we ensure that social systems are resistant enough to endure current storms?

The Refugee Crisis: Europe’s Ultimate Stress Test 

For many, the refugee and migration situation as it is currently playing out in Europe is the biggest stress test to the European Union to date. Rules that applied once, such as the Dublin and Schengen regulations, are clearly out of order, and a Common European Asylum system seems far away. Borders have been closed and member states have both acted unilaterally and without coordination and have quarreled over quotas and the meaning of solidarity as a European Union. The EU Commission is facing challenging times to keep national interests and a European common approach at bay in times when populist parties in European countries fare high in the opinion polls, and anxieties of the general public about rapid social changes prevail. Hopes to manage the situation rest on a deal with Turkey, but this approach is being met with wide skepticism, as it is not clear whether Turkey can and will deliver on its promise to patrol borders and take back refugees, and whether the EU member states will be able to coordinate on a resettlement scheme as proposed by Turkey. 

Guiding Questions

  • How big are the chances of reaching a coordinated approach on the refugee situation among EU member states in the next months?
  • What are the biggest challenges to a common European Asylum System? Why is it not already in place?
  • How great are the chances that a deal with Turkey will be reached and effectively implemented? Will this really lead to a more managed situation?
  • What are future elements of a European humanitarian protection system in times of continued and future crisis?

The Refugee Crisis: Implications for Economies and Societies

The refugee and migration situation that occupied the transatlantic community in 2015 is continuing well into 2016 and has tested the commitment of Europe and the European Union to its humanitarian principles, solidarity mechanisms, and capacities to absorb large numbers of asylum seekers. Given the speed at which refugees are arriving in Europe, dealing with the refugee crisis has been difficult enough, especially with Europe’s current political shift to the right and an increasingly skeptical and negative public debate.

Immigrants have long brought economic benefits to the countries they settle in, but with the rapid pace of change that recent flows have brought, state and non-state actors are facing the challenge of ensuring economic, social, cultural, and linguistic integration into their societies. The process of integration and inclusion will not only take time and resources, but warrants clear leadership in all sectors that can address both the concerns of the receiving society dealing with the rapid change and of the refugees and asylum seekers who want to make a living in their host countries. 

Guiding Questions

  • What are the biggest challenges to integration efforts in countries most affected by the refugee crisis?
  • How can governments, the private sector, and other parts of society work together most effectively to provide opportunities for the refugees?
  • What has to be done to prepare societies for the challenges that come with this unprecedented increase of refugees?

Moscow Rules: Can Russia Be a Reliable Partner?

Russia’s often tense relationship with Europe and the United States crossed a new post-Cold War threshold with the Ukrainian revolution in February 2014 and Russia’s military intervention in Crimea and Donbas. The European Union, the United States, and their allies have responded by imposing sanctions and increasing military reassurance measures for NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank.

Russia surprised the West again with direct military intervention in the Syrian civil war in September 2015, a move that led to the United States to give up on an isolation strategy and renew diplomacy with Moscow. Stepping back, as Russia’s leadership asserts itself in Ukraine and elsewhere and makes frequent reference to its nuclear weapons, it has issued a more overt challenge to the rules-based international system, to the Western liberal order, to the project of European integration, and to the U.S.-led security orders in Europe and the Middle East. If not strong enough politically, economically, and militarily to form an alternative order, Russia is plenty strong enough to act as a spoiler in Europe.

Guiding Questions

  • Can the transatlantic allies partner with Russia in Syria, as they did with the Iran nuclear deal and in Afghanistan, even though Moscow’s consistent primary objective in Syria has been preserving the Assad regime, and its actions have increased civilian casualties and worsened the refugee crisis?
  • What strategy toward Russia should Europe and the United States pursue?
  • What policies will produce optimal results for keeping the peace, managing tensions, defending Western interests and values, and maintaining transatlantic unity?

Russia, Ukraine, and the Future of Europe

As the refugee crisis and other recent events have pushed Ukraine from the headlines, Russia’s policies toward its neighbors continue to cause a deep divide between Moscow and the West. The European Union, the United States, and their partners maintain sanctions against Russia for its annexation of Crimea and its support of the insurgency in Donbas, but an increasing number of European leaders have called for improving relations with Russia, cooperating with Moscow in the Middle East, and relaxing sanctions.

Guiding Questions

  • How should Europe and the United States approach Russia in their foreign policies? How should they approach Ukraine?
  • What are Western interests in Russia, Ukraine, and the rest of the Eastern Neighborhood?
  • What does the Russian leadership want from the West and how can that be reconciled with European values?
  • Is productive engagement possible with today’s Russia? How can Russia and its neighbors live peacefully with one another?
  • What can Ukraine do to succeed as a state, society, and economy in a difficult geopolitical environment?

Software vs. Hardware? U.S. Economic Strategy and China’s New Silk Roads

In recent years, the United States’ economic strategy has been focused on “software”: questions of architecture, rule of law, investment climates, and far-reaching trade agreements. China, on the other hand, is now focusing on exporting its own brand of economic “hardware” under the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road schemes: building roads, ports, and pipelines that can connect and integrate Eurasia. Europe has at times been caught in the middle, seeking to benefit from the new influx of Chinese investment and negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership while defending its own vision of the international economic order.

Guiding Questions

  • Are these very different approaches by the United States and China fated to be at odds with one another? Or could they be mutually reinforcing?
  • How does Europe navigate its position at the nexus of both U.S. and Chinese economic agendas?
  • How will China’s economic challenges at home affect its international economic ambitions?
  • What are the geopolitical implications of these competing economic visions? 

Seeking Settlement: The Path to a Post-War Syria

As the Syrian conflict enters its fifth year, international efforts have failed to de-escalate and resolve what has been an intractable struggle. A host of ceasefires and arrangements have been proposed, announced, and partially agreed to, yet none have held. Meanwhile, over half of the Syrian population is displaced, waves of refugees have fled the destruction and atrocities, and the proliferation of ungoverned spaces has been filled by the self-proclaimed Islamic State group, or daesh. While the path to settlement has been difficult, the immediate strategy seems clear: identify a consolidated coalition of moderate opposition groups, militarily confront extremist elements in Iraq and Syria, and push regional and international partners toward a politically driven outcome.

Faint glimmers of optimism are hard to find. A host of competing regional and international actors and proxies further complicate an already extraordinarily complex situation. Although U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s talks in Vienna have created some room for dialogue for bringing stakeholders to the table, a constant question remains: what will Syria and Iraq look like after the dust settles? Meanwhile, Moscow and Tehran continue to participate in this dialogue, while they have simultaneously increased their efforts to bolster the regime of Bashar al-Assad’s position on the ground, thereby further complicating talks at the negotiations table. And Turkey’s continued conflict with the Kurds adds another deep-rooted dimension of tension that will remain even if the Assad regime should fall.

While settlement may be a distant prospect, international, regional, and local players must think about the requisite steps to restoring regional governance, institutions, and in particular, how to rebuild the predominantly Sunni populated areas. Stopping the violence is essential, but knowing the next steps for governing ungovernable spaces and addressing the grievances of the embittered factions all jockeying for power across the Levant, will be critical. The international community needs to reflect on how to bring back hope to a country not only materially destroyed but also deeply divided in the vision of their nation’s future.

Guiding Questions

  • How can international, regional, and local players negotiate a cease-fire and reach consensus on a palatable diplomatic solution to the conflict?
  • How best can violent extremist elements be sorted, defunded, and marginalized or defeated?
  • Does the increasing involvement of Britain, France, Germany, and Turkey foreshadow future NATO operations in the conflict?
  • What power-sharing mechanisms are needed to maintain stability?
  • What trade-offs and sacrifices will have to be made?

Technology and Digital Transformation

The digital revolution is in its early stages, but effects are already being felt worldwide. New technologies and their use are transforming relations among citizens, businesses, consumers, and governments. Automobile manufacturers rely on data to improve navigation and efficiency; service industries are extending beyond borders and harness digital technologies to reach their consumers more than ever; tech companies are entering the bastion of traditional, and often strategic, industries; urban planners are banking on digitalization to improve the life of citizens through connectivity; remote locations are connecting to global markets through new and safer technologies and access to finance; and houses are being monitored by smart devices.

The opportunities linked to the digital transformation of economies and societies seem limitless. Yet levels of precaution are often as high as levels of ambition on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed lawmakers have the challenge of crafting appropriate regulations and providing infrastructures that both sustain competitive industrial bases and adequately protect users. How to best integrate new technologies and services into existing frameworks, and how to best transition toward new models, remain fundamental challenges of digital transformation. Ultimately, the digitalization of everything requires both imagination and trust: imagination to empower innovators and entrepreneurs; trust to embrace new and different models globally.

Guiding Questions

  • How can policymakers and regulators stay ahead of the game when it comes to creating the appropriate framework for innovations and new technologies to prosper? How should they take into account those who might be most affected by digital transformation?
  • Are past industrial and economic models obsolete? How can industries collaborate across sectors to maximize the gains linked with digitalization?
  • How can new technologies bridge long-time established silos? How can they transform strategic industries in Europe and in the United States?
  • What values and rules apply for digital economies and societies? Does digitalization imply rethinking existing social contracts as a whole?
  • How will increased connectivity and mobility influence global economic relations?

U.S. Elections 2016

The U.S. presidential election cycle is in full-swing, with primary contests between February and June expected to narrow what has been an extraordinarily crowded field of candidates. At the subnational level, Americans will also go to the polls to determine the composition of the 115th United States Congress, to include 34 Class III Senate seats, and to determine the outcome of 12 gubernatorial contests and a host of state and local elections. Needless to say, there is much at stake in what has become an ever-more polarized political environment.

Ideological rigidity among the most politically active and partisan has led to the often bemoaned Washington “gridlock,” while the tone of political debate has grown increasingly polemical. It seems that the U.S. political center is increasingly apathetic or disenchanted. Debates over civil rights, voter disenfranchisement, and gerrymandering are rife, and unprecedented demographic shifts are underway.

As U.S. voters weigh their options in the run-up to the parties’ conventions, and the subsequent debates between their nominees (and potential third-party challengers) sharpen, the international community anxiously awaits the contest’s outcome. Global partners and players, particularly within the transatlantic space, are left pondering how the next administration will address the host of challenges and opportunities facing both Europe, and an increasingly globalized world.

Guiding Questions

  • What are the current domestic trends and demographic shifts in the United States, and how will they and the projected composition of the legislative branch shape the presidential candidates’ platforms?
  • What are the key transatlantic issues that the next administration will have to contend with?
  • How will multiregional trade deals — TPP and TTIP — be affected by the next administration, and the Congress?
  • What are the implications for the fight against terror both abroad and at home? 

Degrade and Destroy: Countering Terror Abroad 

In an increasingly interconnected world, today’s transatlantic security challenges are multi-faceted, widespread, and dynamic. The half-century-long bipolar world of deterrence has given way to a new security environment characterized by global hybrid threats and knock-on effects. Ongoing instability in the Middle East and North Africa, the destabilization of large swathes of West Africa, Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, and simmering tensions in South and East Asia all serve as palpable examples of this new reality. With many emerging crises taking place on Europe’s doorstep, questions of security and instability are affecting a greater portion of transatlantic dialogue today on local, national, and regional levels.

Guiding Questions

  • How will the shifting security landscape shape the transatlantic partnership and its existing security architecture?
  • How can Europe, the United States, and their global partners engage more effectively to deal with hybrid threats and unconventional challenges like climate change or cybersecurity while managing the conventional security landscape?
  • What are the requisite structures to develop and facilitate more comprehensive solutions and holistic approaches to security challenges?
  • How can the transatlantic community best manage and mitigate current crises while anticipating emerging threats, challenges, and opportunities?