China’s Quiet Strategy in Bulgaria: Economic Appeal, Political Constraints
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Summary
Bulgaria presents an opportunity for China to increase its presence and pursue its strategic interests in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). China’s engagement with the country is so far limited, though, compared to that with Hungary and Serbia. Sofia views China’s economic footprint as key but security and soft-power dimensions are increasingly relevant. Public opinion has become more favorable toward China, not seeing it as a threat. It mixes admiration for Beijing’s economic achievements and skepticism about it as an alternative to an EU orientation.
Government and business actors often take an overly uncritical approach to China, focusing on potential economic benefits from Chinese investments while neglecting associated risks. Bulgaria has repeatedly signaled its interest in intensifying cooperation. However, this has not been translated into a consistent national policy. Ministries and industry bodies have shown enthusiasm for strengthening economic ties, and business forums have been held to promote exchange and collaboration between Bulgarian and Chinese companies. Bulgaria joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2015 and has participated in its 14+1 Initiative with CEE countries.
China maintains relations with several political parties in Bulgaria, even if many of them are not major players. The political environment—marked by clientelism, corruption, and a hesitant geopolitical orientation—creates opportunities for Chinese companies to establish partnerships at the local level, particularly with municipalities and universities. The overlapping of Chinese and Russian influence is visible in media narratives and the alignments of parties.
China sees Bulgaria as an attractive partner because of its EU membership. Trade between them has nearly doubled since the early 2010s. But Chinese investments have not significantly impacted the economy. Many projects have resulted in financial losses and brought little benefit in terms of employment or industrial development. China’s technological footprint includes “smart city” initiatives, with Huawei as a key player, though no large-scale projects have been implemented. Cultural and academic cooperation remains active, and Chinese outlets are present in the media landscape.
As an EU and NATO member, Bulgaria must balance economic opportunities with China against risks to national security, Western alliances, the rule of law, and democracy. Yet, its awareness of China’s influence remains underdeveloped. To safeguard its national interest and minimize its vulnerabilities to Chinese influence, Bulgaria must develop a more transparent, structured, and EU-aligned policy toward China that mitigates economic or security risks; implement a robust investment-screening mechanism to prevent risky Chinese investments in critical sectors; keep prioritizing EU funding mechanisms and partnerships with democratic allies; enhance energy diversification through increased collaboration with the United States in nuclear energy, liquefied natural gas, and renewable energy; favor partnerships with EU and US technology providers; encourage EU and US companies complying with EU legislation and regulations to invest in its strategic sectors; facilitate more public discussions on the implications of Chinese investments, and support the media to investigate and to raise awareness about them as well as to boost transparency around them; and invest in media-literacy programs and independent research to enhance public understanding of China’s actions.