The Decisive Round 2

Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski’s thin victory in the first round of Poland’s presidential election raises concerns about his ability to be elected head of state in the decisive second round of voting on June 1. The candidate of the center-right Civic Coalition scored only a 1.8-percentage-point win over Karol Nawrocki of the right-wing Law and Justice party, narrower than the 5-percentage-point win predicted by recent public opinion polls, in an election that brought out a record-high two-thirds of eligible voters. Equally concerning for the Civic Coalition are the results of two other right-wing candidates, whose results gave that end of the political spectrum nearly 51% of the total vote. Trzaskowski and three other left-wing candidates together garnered just over 45%.

The president exercises significant powers in Poland, including through veto power over legislation, serving as the military’s commander-in-chief, appointing ambassadors and judges, and representing the country at international forums such as NATO and UN summits. The stakes in the election are consequenlty high for Poland and Europe.

A victory for Trzaskowski would endorse Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s general line of policy and facilitate smoother implementation of the Polish government’s strategy. A victory for Nawrocki would frustrate these efforts and maintain divisions between the government and the presidency. Some also anticipate that it would weaken and potentially unravel the government coalition.

Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have relaunched their electoral campaigns at full speed. Notably, support for other candidates from outside of the two main political parties was at a record high in the first round. That leaves a lot of votes up for grabs, and the two finalists are reaching out across the political spectrum to get them. Both will have another chance to to do that at a debate on May 21.

Foreign policy is likely to be an area of general agreement. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki support increasing Poland’s defense spending (already the highest among NATO member states) to 5% of GDP. They also back Ukraine and want to deter Russia, and both see the transatlantic alliance as a pillar of Poland’s security. Differences may arise, however, on Europe’s role in ensuring Poland’s defense and on the country’s global engagement beyond its region. But Polish citizens are likely to focus on the candidates’ social and economic policies.

For Europe and the wider West, a cohesive voice emerging from Warsaw will be important to provide a much-needed source of leadership at a time of growing global upheaval. France and Germany have revitalized the Weimar format and are betting on Poland as a driver of EU policy. And the United States has long viewed Warsaw as one of the strongest supporters of the transatlantic alliance. The second round of voting will attract attention well beyond Poland.