Exit Right: Polish Election Appears to Herald a Seismic Political Shift

October 15, 2023

Marta Prochwicz-Jazowska

2 min read

Democracy

Elections

War in Ukraine

Germany

Poland

If exit polls in Poland’s parliamentary election are accurate, the country has backed away from its anti-democratic and anti-EU stance. The opposition led by Donald Tusk will be able to form a stable governing coalition, with enormous consequences for the EU and Ukraine aid.

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Polish exit polls appear to show that the three liberal opposition parties have secured enough seats in the parliamentary election to claim victory together (Civic Coalition with 31.6%, Third Way with 13.0% and The Left with 8.6%). If the results hold, the democratic opposition will be able to form a government with 248 seats, comfortably above the number needed (231)—and with a much bigger advantage than even the most optimistic pre-election polls projected. This unexpected result is possibly linked to the turnout of 72.9%—more than ten percentage points higher than even in 1989. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party appears to have the highest number of votes (36.8%), but not enough to form a majority government. The far-right Konfederacja is the biggest loser of the night, garnering just over 6%.

Donald Tusk and the other liberal opposition leaders have tentatively declared victory but await final results. Headlines in state media, on the other hand, tout the victory of PiS. Still, the atmosphere in the two camps is entirely different. PiS had hoped to be able to form a coalition with Konfederacja, yet with a projected 200 seats for PiS and only 12 for Konfederacja, they fall well short. PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński cautions the party’s supporters to wait for the official results, but has said “We don’t know if the success will translate into another term.”

The liberal opposition will begin negotiations to form a government, but currently the ball is in President Andrzej Duda’s court. Duda will probably task PiS with forming a government, but given the lack of clear coalition prospects, the appointed prime minister will almost certainly fail to win an absolute majority. As a second step, at least 46 MPs will propose an alternate prime minister (possibly Tusk), who will win an absolute majority.

The record high turnout and favorable showing for the liberal opposition parties tentatively indicate that Poles took notice of the threat that further alienation from Europe and further democratic backsliding would pose. And if the exit polls hold, the result will be huge. Poland will have a stable majority government that is committed to upholding democratic processes, providing aid to Ukraine, and repairing the country’s relationships with Germany and the EU.