How to Help Ukraine Strengthen Democratic Resilience During and After the War

Russia’s full-scale invasion since 2022 has transformed Ukraine’s domestic landscape, forcing the state to balance wartime governance with the pursuit of long-term transformative reforms. Despite the centralization of power under martial law, the government has continued efforts toward EU integration and institutional strengthening. Political competition has narrowed but not disappeared: while opposition parties challenge aspects of governance, they support the war effort and reform trajectory. Civil society and volunteer groups have assumed unprecedented roles in oversight, service delivery, and sustaining national morale, compensating for state limitations. Independent media, though operating under pressure, remain critical in keeping the government accountable and countering disinformation. The public’s confidence increasingly rests with the country’s wartime leaders, reflecting a shift in political legitimacy. Even under severe economic and humanitarian strain, the population’s commitment to democratic values and a European future endures.

Ukraine’s integration into Western political, economic, and security structures deepened after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and accelerated following the full-scale invasion. International assistance remains vital for sustaining its defense, economy, and reform agenda. The EU’s €50 billion Ukraine Facility and progress in accession talks highlight its continued commitment, yet divisions among member states, notably Hungary’s veto threats and differing priorities, slow collective action. Meanwhile, US policy toward Ukraine under President Donald Trump has become more transactional and unpredictable, creating uncertainty over long-term military support. NATO members and partners have stepped up coordination through mechanisms such as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, but the lack of unified Western leadership complicates strategic planning.

This brief outlines for the medium term three scenarios for Ukraine’s democratic resilience, depending on how the war, diplomatic efforts, and domestic political dynamics evolve. The most likely one is the war continuing without a ceasefire, and ongoing martial law, societal fatigue, and political uncertainty eventually create the conditions for a government of national unity. The second-most likely scenario is a ceasefire providing temporary relief and space for governance, and opening the way for increased pressure for elections, even with the war unresolved and the country exposed to Russian interference. A peace agreement followed by elections is the least likely scenario at the time of writing, which, without complete domestic acceptance and strong international security guarantees, could destabilize Ukraine politically.

To help Ukraine sustain its sovereignty, democratic governance, and European integration, its international partners should provide continuous, reliable military support and concrete security guarantees. They should reinforce independent institutions, including anti-corruption bodies and the judiciary, while backing civil society and independent media to maintain accountability. Supporting the development of new political actors and harnessing the growing influence of veterans can also strengthen democratic norms and political pluralism. Assistance should also promote cohesion across government and society to prevent and to reduce polarization and external Russian interference, ensuring Ukraine’s resilience during the war and in the ongoing and postwar reconstruction.

Yana Brovdiy is a ReThink.CEE Fellow 2024 of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.