Internal Polish Politics Temper Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Post-PiS Embrace of Ukraine
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Ukraine on January 22 was an important step toward mending bilateral relations between Kyiv and Warsaw, and marked the beginning of Poland’s campaign to rally European support for Ukraine. Upon taking office, the new Polish prime minister identified aid to Ukraine as one of the top priorities of his government. “We will … loudly and firmly demand the full mobilization of the free world … to help Ukraine in this war,” he said.
However, since Tusk took office, his government has been consumed with domestic politics. Joint declarations from Kyiv and Poland’s signing of the G7 Joint declaration of support for Ukraine are welcome developments, but should be seen as Warsaw’s post–Law and Justice (PiS) efforts to catch up to what other countries have done in these areas. In keeping with what seems to be a new pan-European tactic, Tusk signed an agreement on joint Polish-Ukrainian arms purchases and production and approved a loan to buy more powerful weapons. Such collaborations are in keeping with a growing trend: To avoid depleting their own military stocks, European countries will instead ramp up defense-industrial production for Ukraine’s use and their own.
Other outcomes of the state visit also show promise. Tusk committed his government—and himself—to assisting Ukraine along its path to EU accession. “I will do everything … to ensure that not only Poland, but also the EU as a whole, takes Ukraine's European ambitions very seriously," he said in Kyiv. Further announcements included new highway connections and border crossings between Poland and Ukraine as well as renewed intergovernmental consultations. These initiatives are a leap forward in bilateral relations—which turned thorny towards the end of the PiS’s second term. In Kyiv, Tusk also made progress on resolving the truckers’ protests at the Polish-Ukrainian border.
However, Tusk’s careful wording made clear that the interests of Polish citizens are front and center for him. Given his acute awareness of the economic costs for Poland of EU enlargement, his statements should be understood not just as willingness to share Poland’s lessons learned on the EU accession process, but also as a promise to work on mitigating those costs for Polish businesses by keeping pressure on allies. Poland’s Ukraine policy will thus take a dual-track approach: calling for solidarity on the EU and worldwide level, but driven by national interest on the bilateral level. Sometimes the two coincide, sometimes they will clash.
Improved relations between Ukraine and Poland affect broader support for Ukraine, and given Tusk’s and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski’s clout within the EU, renewed Polish advocacy for Ukraine could kick-start the creation of a stable instrument of support. Russia certainly took notice of the positive turn in Polish-Ukrainian relations: The air raid that took place on the last day of Tusk’s visit to Kyiv was the longest since the beginning of January.