Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine’s Trilateral Effort on Black Sea Security

The importance of the trilateral format of cooperation between Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine was reaffirmed during a successful summit in June, which highlighted their shared commitment to regional security and to long-term strategic coordination.

The holding of this first presidential summit was made possible by the election in May of Nicușor Dan as Romania’s head of state, as it is unlikely his opponent would have engaged similarly in the trilateral partnership format.

Functioning as a mini-alliance of political and economic cooperation, this format also aims informally for deeper security ties. Its facilitation of the delivery of critical infrastructure projects such as energy and transport corridors will also bolster security in the Black Sea region. Rather than a temporary partnership, it embodies the three countries’ commitment to cooperate in several areas even after the war in Ukraine ends.

Three Years of Progress

Bucharest, Chisinau, and Kyiv began to build up their trilateral cooperation in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A first informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers took place in September 2022 in Odesa. This was followed in by a meeting of defense and foreign affairs ministers in April 2023 in Bucharest. In July of that same year, a Trilateral Business Forum was held in Chernivtsi.

In April 2024, the three customs authorities signed a memorandum of understanding on an eCustoms pilot effort as part of the EU4Digital Initiative. And at their July meeting in Chisinau that year, the countries’ foreign ministers signed a cooperation agreement to combat Russian disinformation.

Following another meeting of foreign ministers in June in Moldova’s capital, the first summit between the presidents of the three countries was held in Odesa on June 11. Its conclusions included the announced establishment of a permanent coordination mechanism between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, agreement on implementing key infrastructure projects, and alignment on policies aimed at strengthening sanctions against Russia.

Coordinated Response to Russia’s Aggression

This trilateral format serves the specific needs of countries that are interdependent in terms of security. It helps them coordinate their response to Russia’s aggression of varying form and intensity that they face. For Ukraine, this is existential with the full-scale war in its fourth year. Moldova suffers from hybrid warfare with Russia’s disinformation campaigns, energy blackmail, and electoral interference. And Romania is directly affected by these Russian actions that destabilize the Black Sea region, which also include the mining of the Black Sea, campaigns to influence elections, and cyberattacks. Debris from Russian drones has also been found on Romania’s territory.

This trilateral format serves the specific needs of countries that are interdependent in terms of security.

The war has motivated Ukraine to develop partnerships for logistical routes and diplomatic support with its neighbors, which also benefit from infrastructure and security projects that Kyiv supports. Moldova, because of the challenges it faces from the hybrid war waged by Russia in the region has adopted a National Security Strategy that aims for a deeper defense and security partnership with the other two countries, as well as greater defense spending, despite its constitutionally mandated neutrality. Romania, bolstered by its membership of the EU and NATO, aims to become a security provider for the other two countries, which would further drive its emergence as a prominent security actor in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood.

Romania already plays a pivotal security role in the region by serving as a logistical hub for military assistance to Ukraine, hosting NATO battle groups, and providing training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots. It also contributes to intelligence sharing, training, and air policing missions that strengthen the three countries’ collective security posture. Through the trilateral format, Bucharest can also be a bridge between the EU and its two neighboring membership candidates.

Next-Level Improvements

The format of ad hoc meetings between Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine has so far sent an important political signal, but it risks losing its effectiveness if their coordination does not evolve to the next level.

To ensure effective implementation of their joint objectives, more frequent meetings should be held within a permanent framework and, going beyond the recently announced coordination mechanism, there should be a permanent secretariat and a rotating chairmanship. This would help institutionalize the three countries’ partnership and encourage them to take on greater commitments and to follow these up systematically.

There is also a need for a joint action plan with clear deadlines for implementing existing common objectives, including those in the conclusions of the June summit regarding a permanent coordination mechanism, infrastructure projects, and Russia sanctions.

When it comes to enhancing security in the face of Russia’s aggression, the trilateral format should enhance intelligence sharing, cooperation in border security, and joint military exercises.

With Romania’s increasing regional security role, Moldova’s intent to increase defense spending, and Ukraine’s defense industry having significantly expanded and developed as a result of the war, the three countries can work toward developing joint defense production, research and development, and technology transfer, as well as interoperability between their systems. 

The progress in developing the trilateral framework between Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine could be hindered or stalled by domestic political instability and resulting shifts in their foreign policy realignment. Russia’s propaganda and disinformation campaigns could weaken their respective publics’ support for this format by fueling mistrust, nationalist views, and antagonism toward neighbors. To tackle these challenges, there is a dire need for the three governments to undertake transparent strategic communication regarding the joint actions, progress, and benefits of the framework. 

There is still much for Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine to do on and through their trilateral framework. More cooperation, close dialogue, and common efforts can make it reach its full potential. By building the framework up further, they can strive more productively for ensuring stability, security, and prosperity in the Black Sea region.

Iohana-Georgia Burcea is an expert in European affairs at the European Institute of Romania. This article reflects the personal views of this author and does not represent the position of any institution with which this author is affiliated.