Organized Voter Migration in the Western Balkans

Summary

Organized voter migration (OVM) is a form of election fraud that involves registering and organizing for individuals who do not reside in a particular location to vote there for a specific candidate or party, thereby illegitimately influencing election results. The Western Balkans has seen repeated allegations of OVM dating back to at least the early 2010s, mostly in connection with municipal elections. These allegations have sometimes led to serious political consequences, such as in the case of the December 2023 Belgrade municipal elections in Serbia. In the Western Balkans, OVM is not only a national issue but also often a regional one, with reports of voters “migrating” within their own country and across national borders. OVM can, therefore, erode trust in the accuracy of voter registers and in the integrity of the electoral process across multiple countries.

Organized voter migration in the Western Balkans is facilitated by state capture, in which entrenched political elites abuse state institutions to illegally create or maintain fictitious residencies for individuals who will vote for them, thereby manipulating the composition of voter registers. Interior ministries, which oversee civil registers, are often the “entry point” for such operations. Transparency regarding voter registers varies across the Western Balkan countries, making it difficult for external observers to detect suspicious registration patterns that may indicate OVM. Many of the cases that have come to public attention did so as the result of leaks or insider testimony provided to opposition parties or civil society organizations.

A full audit of the voter register is the most comprehensive way to tackle organized voter migration. In the Western Balkans, a limited audit was conducted only in North Macedonia in 2016. However, a successful audit in one country would not resolve the broader issue of dual residency across borders. To effectively address this challenge, regional sharing of data from voter and civil registers is necessary. Additional steps to prevent OVM include increasing the transparency of voter registers, while respecting personal data protection laws, and holding all municipal elections simultaneously, which would reduce opportunities for organized migration. None of these steps will be possible without clear political will and commitment to resolve this issue. The EU should make resolving voter-registration issues a clear condition in the accession process for the Western Balkan countries and actively encourage regional cooperation in addressing them.

Aleksandar Ivković is a ReThink.CEE Fellow 2024 of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.