Poland’s New Political Chapter
Poland entered a new political era when Karol Nawrocki, a newcomer to politics, was sworn in as president on August 6. Like his predecessor, outgoing President Andrzej Duda, Nawrocki was supported by the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) during his campaign. The political “cohabitation” between the ruling centrist coalition (Civic Coalition, KO) led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the conservative presidential palace has not changed. Indeed, despite divisive domestic politics, Poland has emerged as a leading political and economic power in Europe and NATO with especially good ties to today’s Washington.
With the political playing field set until parliamentary elections are held at the latest in fall 2027, here are three interrelated issues to watch going forward.
How Will the Right Take Shape?
President Nawrocki is now the standard-bearer for the conservative movement in Poland and has no political track record to defend, only one to define. He won with strong support not only from the opposition Law and Justice Party, but with many votes from an electorate further to the right associated with the Confederation Party (Konfederacja), an economically libertarian party. Confederation’s younger, more Euroskeptic, media-savvy leaders are aware of their rising influence on the right and have already been nipping at the heels of the older guard of both the traditional right and liberals in Poland.
As president, Nawrocki will have the option to veto legislation coming from parliament, which will make working together with Tusk’s government on domestic economic and social reforms difficult. Whereas outgoing President Duda had only his legacy in mind and not an election campaign, President Nawrocki will be tempted to look for areas of confrontation in order to establish himself as a true fighter for the conservative wing. The ruling coalition will also have an eye on the upcoming elections when proposing legislation, and will also be tempted to turn inward. These evolving dynamics will define a focus on domestic issues as the competing parties vie for votes going into the elections of 2027.
Will Warsaw Continue to Be a Washington Favorite?
During the Biden presidency and into the presidency of Donald Trump, Poland has been a crucial ally in aiding US (and global) support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Current Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski is a known, respected voice in Washington and is able to navigate the corridors of power there. President Nawrocki and his team, however, will have access to the informal halls of power in MAGA world. They are certainly keen on establishing this fact early in the presidency with a meeting with President Trump, be it at the White House or at Mar-a-Lago. Although the prime minister has the most formal power in foreign affairs, the political affinity between the Nawrocki and Trump presidencies will bear fruit. This could work out in two different ways: Tusk and Nawrocki could coordinate on the transatlantic relationship, using their comparative advantages as Europe looks to keep US attention and presence on the continent. They would be wise to do so. Conversely, President Nawrocki could focus only on domestic and MAGA-friendly cultural issues, which may win over fans in today’s Republican Party, but would miss an opportunity to cement Poland’s bipartisan support in Washington.
Will Poland Be Able to Help Lead Europe?
Poland finished its six-month rotating EU presidency in June, ending its formal leadership at the EU level. Now, with the German government having signed a treaty of security and cooperation with France, will Poland be able to continue to work with the other major European actors to define Europe’s role in the world, joint support for Ukraine, and US-European relations? Campaign rhetoric during the presidential elections from a wide swath of the political spectrum would point to a Poland starting to turn inward. President Nawrocki is a historian by training, and one with keen interest in the history of Polish-German and Polish-Ukrainian relations during the Second World War, ever sensitive topics that will be relevant to the president’s approach to Poland’s place in Europe. Progress and dialogue (perhaps not breakthroughs) in these areas would allow President Nawrocki and his able team to lead on these issues while insisting Poland remains a powerful voice in the EU and NATO. After all, there is a war on its border that is threatening to spill over into NATO while Washington is tempted to turn away from Europe. Allowing these historical issues to undermine European collaboration in the face of Russian aggression and revisionism would only play into the Kremlin’s hands.
With most of Europe enjoying a quiet summer, Ukraine continuing to fight for its existence, and Washington trying to rebalance trade via tariffs on its closest partners, Poland has entered a new political chapter. President Nawrocki will now lead Poland as head of state, hopefully with an eye to promoting and cementing the country’s leading position in the transatlantic relationship and in Europe.