They Meant What They Said

Antiestablishment sentiment among the Romanian public has been simmering for some time, but it boiled over on May 4 in the first round of the presidential election, when extreme-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) candidate George Simion garnered 40% of the vote. His main contender, independent mayor of Bucharest Nicusor Dan, garnered only 20%, a knife’s-edge ahead the mainstream coalition candidate. The upcoming runoff battle is the perfect mirror of the November 2024 election runoff, which was canceled due to foreign interference. This recent outcome demonstrates that the Romanian electorate is more consistent and values-based than many political elites believed them to be. While malign interference was proven, it was not the leading cause of the election results. The voters’ preferences are clear. 

Elections trumped governance for political elites. During an electoral season that lasted almost a year, they have focused on their survival in power as deficits and inflation go unchecked and socio-economic inequality and poverty levels remain the highest in the EU. The strong aggregate economic growth stands on the shoulders of Romania’s private sector, while the state is increasingly bloated: One in three employees in Romania works for the state. The state is also inefficient: Only one in four Romanians pays taxes and the quality of public services in healthcare and education is collapsing.   

The signs of change were clear: Opinion polls have favored an independent candidate for over two years now, and trust in political parties has reached an all-time low as anti-establishment sentiment was on the rise. This meant that extreme-right candidates started to poll together up to one-third of the total. In turn, mainstream parties of Social Democrats (PSD) and National Liberals (PNL) began to work on coalition scenarios that would ensure their survival in power using questionable electoral practices such as vote transfers, banning of candidates, and canceling of elections.

Simion has recently dialed back his numerous statements aligned with Russian narratives—for example against support for Ukraine and critical of the EU. Since the change of power in the United States, Simion and other independent candidates promoting the nationalist agenda have been highly vocal in aligning themselves with the Trump administration. Simion is open about his alignment with conservative European leaders such as Meloni. The AUR became the second largest party in the parliament with 18% in 2024. Simion himself tripled his votes, with only 1.2 million votes last year in his presidential bid, but 3.8 million in the most recent vote. If Simion wins the runoff on May 18, his hold on power will be much stronger than that of any other extreme-right candidate given that he can leverage AUR into a new balance of power in the parliament and the government. It also highly likely that the Social Democrats (PSD) will support Simion, providing him with a strong coalition government, a majority in parliament, and thus a high level of legitimacy in office. At only 38 years old, he has the potential to become to Romania what Viktor Orbán is to Hungary: a powerful, centralizing, autocratic leader. This will leave much of the burden of safeguarding democratic processes to other stakeholders in the country, with the private sector and civil society having to step in to monitor and provide checks and balances on the governing process in the years to come.

With only half the number of votes, Dan—Simion’s primary contender—is the only option for the progressive electorate. He has a strong pro-European and anti-corruption agenda, and having stood up to JD Vance’s recent criticism of Romania, he is also an anti-establishment candidate. What he lacks in charisma he makes up for in consistency and strategy, as he has the capacity to engage with political parties across the spectrum and to advance key priorities. He has managed to lead unbound by the interests of the city’s established parties. Whether the mainstream parties will pass the test of maturity and support a candidate who is not under their direct control will dictate the result of the most dramatic presidential election since the fall of Communism in Romania.