Disdain For EU From President Trump, Tough Love From President Clinton

By now Donald Trump is damaged goods even for the Kremlin, which had been supporting his campaign surreptitiously and undermining Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House, through open criticism and covert attacks. Forecasters in the US now give Clinton more than an 85% chance of winning.

However, we’ve been here before; many of us went to bed on 23 June expecting a “Remain” victory in the United Kingdom referendum, based on the latest opinion polls, and woke up next morning to find that a disgruntled electorate had thrown into reverse more than forty years of Britain in Europe.

So, there may still be shocks and surprises before election day on 8 November. So it’s worth considering the implications of a Trump presidency for Europe as well as the changes that a President Clinton would bring to transatlantic relations.

This year’s election takes place in exceptional circumstances on both sides of the Atlantic. Europe faces persistent mutually reinforcing disorders, from eurozone instability and faltering growth to migration, the fragmentation of political systems, a retreat from globalisation, and an ill-prepared Brexit.

European leaders openly speculate about the disintegration of the EU. Insurgent parties may draw strong support in next year’s elections in the Netherlands, France, and Germany.

^{Photo credit: Ben Schumin}