The Indo-Pacific in Transition

The Indo-Pacific in Transition: Strategy, Competition, and Cooperation

Introduction by Dr. Sayuri Romei

For more than a decade, the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), in partnership with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, has selected and convened a select group of emerging leaders in national security, foreign policy, and geoeconomics through the Young Strategists Forum (YSF) in Tokyo. The forum brings together a diverse cohort from government, military institutions, think tanks, academia, and the private sector across the United States, Europe, Japan, and the broader Indo-Pacific. Beyond participation in a rigorous tabletop strategy exercise and engagements with senior officials and experts in Japan, the program is designed to foster enduring cross-border relationships among future policymakers and practitioners. Supported by an alumni network that now numbers in the hundreds, the forum strengthens professional ties that underpin long-term cooperation among like-minded countries.

The most recent convening of the YSF took place in Tokyo from January 30 to February 5, 2025. Participants took part in an Indo-Pacific strategy simulation led by Dr. Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute and engaged in discussions with officials and experts from Japan’s National Security Secretariat, the Ministry of Defense, leading universities including the University of Tokyo and Keio University, and prominent research institutions such as the Institute of Energy Economics Japan and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

This volume brings together essays written by participants in the 2025 forum, offering them a platform to reflect on insights drawn from both their professional experience and their time in Tokyo. Authors were encouraged to pursue topics of greatest relevance to their own interests and expertise. Collectively, these contributions provide a multifaceted examination of the evolving regional and global order, the challenges confronting the United States, Japan, and other like- minded partners, and the avenues through which these countries can work together to defend and advance a free and open international order.

The essays are organized around shared strategic themes shaping the Indo-Pacific. The volume opens with questions of hard security and deterrence. Agnieszka Kurzej examines the expanding role of Euro-Atlantic navies in Indo-Pacific security, highlighting the strategic value of presence, partnership, and interoperability. Building on this focus, Iain MacGillivray, Masatoshi Murakami, and Maximillian Ernst analyze the growing convergence of German, Australian, and Japanese deterrence strategies, demonstrating how these geographically distant but strategically aligned middle powers are contributing to regional stability.

The focus then shifts to the digital and informational domain. Jiro Minier assesses the rapid evolution of Chinese cyberespionage capabilities and underscores the need for more adaptive and resilient responses. Complementing this analysis, Sayaka Shingu and Diana Myers argue that effective coordination and data-sharing among states with converging priorities is essential to countering China’s expanding influence in emerging military technologies, including artificial intelligence.

The volume next turns to the challenge of Taiwan. Eyck Freyman makes the case for institutionalizing policy coordination among like-minded states to enhance coherence and credibility in approaches to cross-strait stability. Extending this discussion, Michal Bokša draws lessons from Ukraine to assess Taiwan’s strategic thinking, identifying both enduring strengths and critical blind spots.

Beyond traditional security concerns, the essays also address economic and technological competition. Blake Herzinger explores how Southeast Asian countries are navigating intensifying pressures from economic fragmentation, supply chain realignment, and great-power rivalry. Looking to areas of untapped cooperation, Chris Li highlights biotechnology as a strategically significant yet underdeveloped domain in which deeper alignment could yield both security benefits and public goods.

Finally, the volume addresses the resilience of critical infrastructure. Pratnashree Basu, Takuma Matsu, Momiji Natsuki, and Bich Tran examine how enhanced maritime domain awareness can strengthen the protection of subsea cables—an often-overlooked but essential foundation of economic security and digital connectivity in the Indo-Pacific.