A Middle East in Flux: Four Transatlantic Risks
Rockets between Israel and Iran, the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria all set the stage for a year that will continue to essentially alter the geopolitical pillars of the region. Iran has not been this weak since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, while Türkiye has been propelled to the role of a regional game-changer. Israel’s regional positioning is uncertain, but Netanyahu is bound to seize the momentum of a second Trump term to press his advantage. Leadership changes in the White House and European capitals create further uncertainty about the course and priorities of external players, and hedging looms large. For transatlantic allies in Europe, the United States, and Türkiye, key risks to watch for in 2025 include: the response of a weakened Iran; Syria at the crossroads post-Assad; the future of Gaza, Palestine, and Israel in the region; and the ways in which strategic rivals China and Russia may seek to exploit the fragility of regional reconfiguration.