Orbán’s Prizes

The White House meeting between Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and US President Donald Trump was about more than mere diplomacy. It was carefully crafted political theatre to showcase Orbán’s close ties with the White House as evidence of his standing on the global stage. The prime minister is facing an unprecedentedly (for him) tight race in next year’s parliamentary elections, and the meeting will boost his image while distracting Hungarians from domestic economic headwinds that include stagflation. The encounter also allowed him to emphasize his support for Trump’s efforts to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, a step to help ensure the president’s continued goodwill toward Budapest.

In that vein, the main mission of the meeting from Orbán’s vantage point was to gain an exemption from American sanctions on Russian energy firms Lukoil and Rosneft. Hungary imports 90% of its oil from Russia. Acutely vulnerable ahead of the elections, Orbán cannot afford to risk Hungary’s being a target of secondary sanctions or an energy supply shock at home. Trump signalled openness to Budapest’s case, citing Hungary’s landlocked geography, which leaves it dependent on pipelines, and the difficulty of quickly replacing Russian energy.

In a press conference after his meeting, Orbán announced that he had obtained an exemption for two major conduits—oil via the Druzhba pipeline and gas via the Turkish Stream pipeline—with no explicit time limit. This is a clear win for the prime minister, and it raises questions about the seriousness of US sanctions policy. At the same time, Hungary and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding for cooperation in the civil-nuclear field. Hungary will purchase American nuclear fuel, collaborate on small modular reactors, and receive US technology for storing spent fuel. Hungarians, according to Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, have also entered into talks for a liquefied natural gas deal with an American company. This signals to the US administration some willingness to diversify from Russia, though timelines remain vague.

Orbán appears to be departing Washington with two political prizes: endorsement from Trump and an apparent exemption from sanctions. Hungary’s energy dependency on Russia, however, will remain a sore point for the United States. The matter may well be revisited after Hungarians vote.