Power, Policy, and Tests Ahead

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s gamble on a snap election has paid off decisively. Her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide victory in the vote for the House of Representatives, performing strongly in single-member districts and nationwide proportional representation. The party captured 316 of 465 seats in the lower chamber of the Diet to secure a two-thirds supermajority that can override vetoes by the upper chamber, the House of Councilors. The win was so overwhelming that the LDP was forced to forfeit 14 seats to other parties due to a shortage of listed candidates. Turnout was critical. A record level of early voting seems to indicate that inclement weather throughout the country did not impact participation significantly.

The outcome marks a dramatic reversal for the LDP, which suffered major setbacks in the October 2024 House of Representatives and the July 2025 House of Councilors elections. Those defeats resulted in difficulties passing legislation and underscored the party’s need for renewal. The current landslide is particularly important because it restores legislative stability and enables smoother progress in bill deliberations and other parliamentary proceedings.

Takaichi’s strong personal popularity clearly underpinned the LDP’s success. Support for her leadership and for her party did not always align, which made her decision to dissolve the lower chamber highly risky. The LDP encompasses a broad ideological spectrum, ranging from conservatives to liberal-leaning centrists, but Takaichi, known for her conservative stance, has now consolidated her authority. That strengthens her hand, not only in advancing policy initiatives in the Diet but also in shaping internal party dynamics. Notably, the LDP now holds enough seats on its own to initiate a constitutional amendment proposal, a long-standing objective of the prime minister’s political agenda.

On the diplomatic front, Takaichi’s emphasis on reinforcing the US-Japan alliance appears to be proceeding smoothly. President Donald Trump endorsed her shortly before the election. But a key challenge ahead will be the extent of alignment between Takaichi’s hardline approach toward Beijing and Washington’s foreign and security strategy, which prioritizes the Western Hemisphere. Takaichi will need continued US support for her hawkish China policy. At the same time, the fluid nature of US tariff policies warrants her scrutiny. The topic will undoubtedly arise in a meeting between the two leaders on March 19. Growing transatlantic tensions over the liberal international order and Japan’s contributions to strengthening Western cohesion (particularly within the G7) will be other key issues.

Domestically, attention is turning to Takaichi’s plans to reconcile her proposed expansionary fiscal policies with Japan’s exceptionally high public debt. Scrutiny will also fall on her ability to balance restrictive immigration policies with demographics that have led to persistent labor shortages.

Takaichi is popular now, but the prime minister faces the hard task of turning electoral dominance into durable governance at home and credible leadership abroad.

Naoko Funatsu is a research associate at the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.