Russia and China in Central Asia’s Technology Stack

Executive Summary

Central Asia’s role as a geopolitical battleground among Russia, China, Europe, and the United States has grown in recent years as Western countries seek trade and digital connectivity routes that bypass Russian infrastructure. While Western discourse on a “Middle Corridor” through Central Asia has focused on railways, ports and pipelines, China’s Digital Silk Road is quietly reshaping the region’s digital landscape and deepening strategic dependencies on Beijing. At the same time, Central Asian governments are drawing primarily on PRC technologies and Russian regulatory models to strengthen their own digital authoritarian regimes, risking joint domination by the increasingly aligned governments in Beijing and Moscow.

China’s increasing control over the region’s “technology stack” could have an outsized impact on the future of digital connectivity, cybersecurity, and geopolitical competition across Eurasia. Russia’s regulatory influence on the region’s governments could shape digital governance norms across Eurasia. For Central Asian actors and Western policymakers invested in preserving the region’s strategic autonomy, it is crucial to understand these vulnerabilities and offer viable alternatives in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector. Ensuring a resilient and diversified digital landscape in Central Asia is therefore not only a regional concern but a vital issue for global security.

This report seeks to shed light on the influence of Russia and China on the ICT sectors of three Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. It uses the “technology stack” method adapted from two previous reports by GMF’s Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) on the future internet and the digital information stack released in 2020 and 2022. The framework is used to examine one country’s presence in and penetration of another country’s technology and regulatory ecosystem. The analysis of the resulting dependencies provides an indicative, rather than exhaustive overview of Russia and China’s technological footprint in Central Asia, offering key examples and highlighting areas where policymakers can focus their attention with the goal to de-risk digital technologies and governance in Central Asia.

Key Findings

• Central Asian states have developed strategic dependencies on and vulnerabilities to Russia and China across all layers of the tech stack. These interconnected weaknesses allow for greater leverage, disruption, and damage by external actors than any single dependency alone.
• Despite these vulnerabilities, Central Asian governments still have discretion to manage their dependencies. They are sovereign balancers, looking to avoid dependence on any one actor while maximizing their own interests.
• Russia and China’s strengths in Central Asia’s technology stack are complementary to one another, and competition between Russian and PRC firms is unlikely to jeopardize the Sino-Russian relationship.
• Despite their technological strengths, the United States and Europe face challenges in offering a viable alternative to Russia and China in Central Asia due to the region’s small market, compliance burdens related to operating there, difficulties matching their competitors’ pricing, and linguistic barriers.

Policy Recommendations

• Equip US and EU infrastructure finance organizations to compete with PRC alternatives 
• Promote Open RAN standards as a tactic to dislodge PRC network equipment in Central Asia
• Position US and EU firms as network and data infrastructure suppliers for the Middle Corridor to strengthen the region’s connectivity with European cloud markets
• Expand US and European Competitiveness in smart applications in strategic sectors such as e-governance across Central Asia
• Create public-private platforms for cross-sector collaboration
• Enhance regional resilience through capacity building exchanges with policymakers and public sector officials, focusing on transparency, cybersecurity, and governance standards
• Support Central Asian civil society organizations that provide transparency and analysis of the opaque technology stack conditions on the
• Expand their technology analytical capacities, and adopt the technology stack framework as a SWOT analysis tool for techno-economic statecraft

Before delving into the details of the Kazakh, Kyrgyz and Uzbek tech stacks, this report first contextualizes the position of these countries in a brief history of Central Asia and its foreign relations. It then discusses why the region and its tech stack are of significant strategic importance to transatlantic policymakers. Second, drawing on contemporary examples, this report uses GMF’s tech stack framework to map China and Russia’s presence in each of the three country’s technology landscapes. Third, drawing from the case study findings, this report seeks to provide transatlantic policymakers key analytical insights and policy recommendations for strategic engagement with Central Asia