Serbia After the Student Victory

Preliminary results from Serbia's October 25 parliamentary election indicate that Aleksandar Vučić and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), in power for 14 years, have been ousted. The opposition, youth-led Student List appears to have garnered approximately 53% of the vote and 140 of 250 parliamentary seats while Vučić's SNS-led coalition is projected to have won 104. In a surprising move, the former president and prime minister acknowledged defeat shortly after the polls closed.

The importance of the results goes beyond the numbers. The Student List, which emerged from the November 2024 Novi Sad railway station tragedy, united citizens across generations and political divides who demanded accountability. Despite nearly two years of pressure and attempts to discredit and divide it, the movement maintained its integrity, built a broad political coalition, and turned sustained civic mobilization into electoral victory. Academician Radomir Saičić, a prominent Student List candidate, described the result as a victory of courage over fear.

Record turnout, estimated at 69%, made a powerful statement about Serbian society. Citizens abroad made considerable efforts to vote, overcoming numerous obstacles. And election night, after years of polarization and fears of unrest, passed peacefully. The vote is all the more significant given electoral conditions. In its preliminary assessment, the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights highlighted unequal campaign conditions, misuse of public resources, pressure on voters, concerns over the voter register, and election-day irregularities.

Now What?

The Student List's projected majority should allow it to govern alone, but forming a government may take time. Final results remain pending, and electoral complaints or repeat voting could delay the process. Once results are certified, the outgoing parliamentary speaker has 30 days to convene the new assembly, after which a government must be formed within 90 days.

Vučić's unexpected concession was an encouraging signal for a peaceful transfer of power, but he is not disappearing from Serbian politics. In addition to its continued presence in parliament, his SNS retains strong local government representation and an extensive political network built over its time in power. Vučić has pledged to remain active in opposition. How his party adapts will be important to Serbia's transition.

The Student List has yet to name a prime minister or indicate who might take key cabinet positions. Public speculation is focused on Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist, university professor, and the list's lead candidate, as a possible prime minister. Another challenge is turning the movement's reform commitments into effective government. A presidential election due before the end of this year adds another layer of complexity to Serbian politics.

Consequences for Europe and Washington

The election result does not necessarily signal Belgrade’s geopolitical realignment. Unlike its domestic reform agenda, the Student List's positions on Russia, China, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are unclear. This raises questions for Brussels and Washington about Serbia’s future strategic orientation and the prospects for closer collaboration with the West.

The United States will want continuity. The US–Serbia Strategic Dialogue, launched in July, established bilateral cooperation on energy security, technology, trade, and regional stability. These interests will remain relevant to a new government. At the same time, Serbia's relations with Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are central to regional security, and Belgrade’s approach to Russia and NATO will also be closely monitored. Early diplomatic engagements will indicate the new government's direction, but democratic change at home does not necessarily signal a shift in foreign policy.

For the EU, the election offers an opportunity to revive Serbia's stalled accession process. A candidate country since 2012, Serbia has not opened a new negotiating chapter or cluster since 2021. The Student List's commitment to judicial independence, media freedom, accountability, and the rule of law could give fresh momentum to long-overdue reforms.

Yet support for European democratic standards does not signify the same for EU membership. The Student’s List has indicated that the final decision on that should rest on the outcome of a referendum. Brussels should nevertheless seize this democratic opening to reengage with Serbia, support its institutional reforms, and rebuild public trust in the accession process while recognizing that the country's future relationship with the EU remains to be defined.

Setting an Example

Serbia's election offers an important lesson at a time when democratic institutions are under pressure and trust in established political parties is declining. The students have shown that citizens can overcome political divisions, sustain peaceful civic mobilization, and bring about change through democratic means. Their ability to unite people around shared principles rather than a common ideology or a single dominant leader was central to their achievement. That diversity will be a source of strength but will also bring challenges as the movement transitions from campaigning to governing. The students may have demonstrated discipline, resilience, and an ability to build trust across political divides, but the next chapter will test how those qualities are translated into effective and inclusive government.

Three milestones will now shape Serbia's transition: certification of results and the convening of parliament before the 30-day deadline; government formation before the 90-day deadline; and the smooth running of the upcoming presidential election. Now that Serbs have demonstrated a commitment to democratic change, political leaders and institutions have the responsibility to embed it into society.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.