Türkiye: Cautious Optimism

To avoid repeating the misstep, Ankara remained neutral this year. Nevertheless, Türkiye seems less concerned about a second Trump presidency than many others in Europe. 

There are five reasons for this. First, Trump’s first term provides evidence that he will forge another strong relationship with Erdoğan. Second, Trump is not enthusiastic about the US military presence in Syria and, as argued in the Heritage Foundation's Mandate for Leadership, may "[rethink] U.S. support for the YPG/PKK [People's Protection Units/Kurdistan Worker's Party]". Third, Trump was reluctant to apply the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act to Türkiye during his first term and is likely to try to resolve the S-400 crisis and lift related sanctions, especially if Republicans control Congress and can facilitate this by changing the language of the National Defense Authorization Act. Fourth, Trump is likely to advocate for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, potentially easing pressure on Türkiye to distance itself from Moscow. Fifth, Trump's return could spur European nations to bolster their defense capabilities to become less reliant on US support, potentially strengthening Türkiye's case for deeper integration into the European security framework at a time of otherwise strained relations with Brussels.

A new Trump presidency is, however, not without challenges for Türkiye. If he acts on his promise to impose a tariff of at least 10% on all imports, with 60% duties on imports from China, Türkiye will also suffer, if not directly, then indirectly as its main trading partner, the EU, will also take a hit. In addition, increased US support for Israel and Saudi Arabia, and more intense pressure on Iran, could shift the regional balance of power in ways that weaken Turkish influence. Most significantly, Trump’s warm relationship with Erdoğan did not prevent the former US president from threatening, in a social media post, to “obliterate the Turkish economy”. He also truthfully boasted in that post that he had done something similar before. At the same time, a bipartisan consensus in Congress on certain issues concerning Türkiye exists, and Trump’s election alone may not alter this dynamic.

Trump's return may provide certain opportunities for Ankara, but they may come at a significant geopolitical and geo-economic cost.