The US Midterm Elections Enter the Homestretch

Two months ahead of the November 3 US midterms, which involve races for all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, all signs point to the Democrats' winning at least a narrow majority in the House. There are three primary reasons for this: President Donald Trump's historic unpopularity; the Democrats' consistent advantage in the "generic" ballot, which measures the national popular vote for the House; and greater enthusiasm among Democrats than among Republicans about voting. Still, Democrats' gains may be limited, perhaps to 15-20 House seats, due to gerrymandering that has drawn most congressional districts to include voters who lean strongly toward one party or the other. In other words, far fewer districts than in the past are truly competitive. This is likely to benefit Republicans, who have been behind most gerrymandering efforts. Democrats may have to win the nationwide popular vote by 3 percentage points to gain a House majority.

 

As for the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority in that chamber. Despite the aforementioned trends in the Democrats' favor, that will be difficult. They will need to retain all seats they currently hold, including those for Georgia and Michigan, states that Trump captured in 2024, and "flip" four of five seats—in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—where the Republican candidates are vulnerable.

 

The following slide deck provides greater detail about the domestic and international challenges that frame US voters' views, some of which may persist and influence the 2028 presidential election.