What Mini Trade Deals Tell Us About the Future of US-EU Trade

Executive Summary

The United States and the EU together account for nearly 30% of global trade in goods and services and 43% of global GDP. However, no comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) governs their economic relationship. Instead, to improve on their World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, the two sides have developed an intricate network of “mini trade deals”: limited-scope sectoral agreements that address specific trade frictions.

This report examines over seven decades of these transatlantic arrangements. Beginning with the formation of the European institutions, it covers more than 120 agreements from 1962 through 2024. In what follows, the agreements are organized into six substantive thematic areas: agri-trade; steel; data, finance, security, and customs cooperation; agreements on GATT tariff concessions, including those relating to changes in EU membership; cross-sectoral agreements; and sector-specific market access and standardization agreements. Finally, the report evaluates both the drivers behind their conclusion and their subsequent durability.

Across these thematic areas, the analysis explores three particular factors driving the conclusion of mini trade deals:

• security or emergency circumstances creating a joint government priority
• industry on both sides of the Atlantic driving the agreement
• unilateral legislative, regulatory, or judicial action creating the need for bilateral accommodation

Each factor affects success and durability in a different way. Shared governmental objectives and sustained commercial demand appear to support both conclusion and durability. Agreements prompted primarily by unilateral action can also produce durable outcomes, particularly where they adjust to a lasting change in trading conditions. However, where they are designed to manage entrenched regulatory or political differences, they are more likely to require amendment, renegotiation, or replacement. These underlying differences may also limit institutionalization and weaken the legal foundations on which durable cooperation rests.

The report’s findings are in turn applied to the 2025 US-EU Trade Framework Agreement (the “Turnberry Agreement”) to explore the issue areas where cooperation may yield results, offering insights into the ways in which workable, durable solutions for transatlantic trade may materialize.