Bellwether Baden-Württemberg

The results of Germany’s first of five state elections this year could be a harbinger for the country’s next federal government. Although Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) squandered an opportunity to take back the office of minister president in Baden-Württemberg, the election outcome is a nod to centrist cooperation between the conservatives and Greens in a fragmented political landscape with a strong far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. 

The home of Mercedes-Benz and the Black Forest, the southwest state of Baden-Württemberg, also affectionately known as the Ländle (little state), is an economic heartland where the Greens have been a political force for well over a decade. It has been a laboratory for a hybrid political culture embracing both heavy industry and climate protection. Sunday’s vote of approximately 30% for the Greens and 29% for the CDU shows the viability of the CDU and the Greens when they tack to the center. 

Merz could have used an extra boost to cement the CDU’s recent national lead against the AfD, and its young candidate, Manuel Hagel, was in pole position until the last couple of weeks. But the charismatic Green politician Cem Özdemir, who served as agriculture minister in the last federal government, closed a polling gap of nearly 15 percentage points over the course of the campaign, profiting from the political inexperience of his opponent and videos from the past that cast Hagel in a negative light.  

The Greens are not political novices in Baden-Württemberg; they speak the local language in the Ländle. The retiring Minister President Winfried Kretschmann may tout his party’s sunflower logo, but he firmly represents the conservative wing of the Greens. His popularity may have dipped toward the end of his tenure, but still stands out in comparison to that of the Greens overall, who were once flying high and are now trying to find a voice in the opposition. 

The race to succeed Kretschmann showed that the Greens and the CDU are still parties that can build a stable coalition when parliamentary majorities are dwindling. Kretschmann has managed to govern with the CDU since 2016 by putting the economy first. Many of Germany’s blue-chip and Mittelstand companies are based in Baden-Württemberg, and are alarmed about high energy costs and excessive red tape. Özdemir stuck to Kretschmann’s script as a Green “Realo” (from the party’s realist wing) and even veered to the outer conservative lane of his party to thwart the fringe parties on both sides of the political spectrum and pull ahead of Hagel.  

The electoral outcomes in Baden-Württemberg could reinvigorate visions of a future federal coalition of the CDU and the Greens—especially since the Social Democrats’ (SPD) successive roles in the federal government have practically stripped it of its profile as a catch-all party. Just barely making the five percent hurdle in Baden-Württemberg is a historic low for the SPD. 

A radical departure from politics as usual is required for Berlin to navigate its new security leadership role in Europe and reboot its economy. Legendary CDU chancellor Konrad Adenauer was not a fan of experiments, but the unconventional coalition in Baden-Württemberg could offer lessons for pragmatic approaches on the economy, energy, and migration while confronting the far-right AfD party head on.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.