EU–Türkiye Defense Cooperation: Why Now—and How Far?

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Introduction

By Kadri Taştan

For decades, Europe’s security framework has rested on NATO and, above all, US leadership. That framework is now under pressure. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended assumptions about lasting peace on the continent, while Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited European concerns about the reliability of American security commitments.

In an urgent response to these developments, defense and security top the EU agenda. Member states are significantly increasing military spending, and Brussels has launched the €800 billion Re-Arm Europe initiative, an ambitious effort to strengthen Europe’s defense capacity and reduce dependence on external powers. Leaders are also working to build new coalitions inside NATO through the emerging “European pillar” and outside the alliance via bilateral and multilateral frameworks such as the Franco-British initiative to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.

A central question emerges as EU moves to increase its strategic autonomy: Who fits within this new security architecture? While Norway and the United Kingdom are generally seen as natural partners, Türkiye’s role remains more ambiguous. This raises a key unresolved issue about the country’s position in Europe’s evolving security architecture.

Türkiye is not just another partner. As a NATO member state, it occupies a strategic crossroads linking Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea. It has played an active role in supporting Ukraine militarily and has developed a sizable, increasingly sophisticated defense industry. But despite these strengths, Türkiye’s relations with the EU remain complex and often tense. Political disagreements, normative differences, the unresolved Cyprus conflict, and enduring Greek-Turkish rivalries continue to restrict formal cooperation.

Moreover, the Türkiye-EU relationship is undergoing a deep structural shift. In the past, ties were largely shaped by shared responses to external threats and hopes of closer integration. Links today are increasingly defined by the dynamics of a multipolar global order, the declining influence of the geopolitical West, and EU’s efforts to redefine its identity and role, internally and externally. Türkiye and EU are repositioning themselves in global politics, and this realignment will shape the future of their interactions.

This report does not merely describe the state of Türkiye-EU defense ties. It analyzes the impact of historical legacies, great-power competition, and shifting regional dynamics on reshaping the foundation of the relationship between the two. It probes core strategic questions: What role will Türkiye play in Europe’s emerging security framework? What are the long-term costs and benefits of deeper defense cooperation? And how can this cooperation be embedded within a normative framework acceptable to both sides?