The Fourth Plenum: Decoding China's Roadmap to 2030

From October 20-23, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party held its Fourth Plenum in Beijing, marking an important moment as the Party sets the direction for China’s development for the next five years. The session adopted recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, endorsing Xi Jinping’s goals of high-quality development, scientific and technological self-reliance, and strengthening national security in response to rising global instabilities. The Central Committee also announced the replacement of 11 members, the highest personnel turnover since 2017 amid an ongoing anti-corruption purge in the military.

To discuss the plenum’s outcomes, we are joined by Jonathan Czin. Jonathan is a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy. He holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He previously led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policy making at the CIA and also spent two years as director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. 

Timestamps

[00:00] Start 
[01:36] Why the Fourth Plenum Matters 
[03:37] Key Takeaways: Policy Continuity and Political Purges 
[05:07] Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping’s Military Ambitions 
[09:23] Signals and Adjustments in Economic Planning 
[11:56] Previewing the 15th Five-Year Plan  
[13:33] Xi Jinping’s Growing Confidence 
[17:42] Political Messaging and Choreography 
[20:21] Language in the Communique: “Strategic Resolve” 
[22:28] What to Expect from the Xi-Trump Summit 
[26:38] Is Beijing Worried the Summit Could Backfire?