The Middle Corridor in the Spotlight

Each crisis exposes vulnerabilities in key trade, transport, and travel routes. The recent US–Israeli strike and Iran’s response are already disrupting the region, affecting flight paths and maritime trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Much of the air traffic has been diverted via the South Caucasus and over the Caspian Sea, as airlines, insurers, and shipping companies avoid the immediate zone of hostilities. This underscores the global importance of a diversity of corridors and highlights the growing strategic relevance of the Middle Corridor.

Global trade is increasingly shaped—and constrained—by geopolitical tensions. The Northern Corridor through Russia has long been the main land route connecting Europe and Asia, but the war in Ukraine is eroding its strategic relevance. While still heavily used, the corridor’s long-term importance may decline due to deepening economic and the political decoupling of Russia from the West. Maritime routes, which carry more than 80% of global imports and exports—around 11 billion tons of goods—face rising risks. Disruptions in the Red Sea, particularly around Djibouti and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, alongside tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, illustrate the vulnerability of critical chokepoints.

Alternative connectivity initiatives also face headwinds. The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), once hailed as the “corridor of the century”, has been disrupted by the war in Gaza and broader regional escalation, and projects such as the Development Road face delays due to persistent security threats.

The Middle Corridor, which links Europe and Asia via the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea, has gained renewed strategic significance. Freight on the Middle Corridor grew sharply from 840,000 tons in 2021 to 4.5 million tons in 2024, with container traffic rising approximately 260% to ~50,500  Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU)s. At the same time, the Northern Corridor through Russia has seen traffic fall substantially since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet it still handles millions of TEUs annually, showing that the Middle Corridor, while growing fast, remains smaller in absolute scale. The route is not without risks: Rising tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, recent strikes near the Turkish border, and Russian and Iranian military presence in the Caspian could affect transit if hostilities escalate.

Importantly, the Middle Corridor is not a replacement for other routes but a complementary alternative. With no single corridor able to guarantee uninterrupted flows, resilient trade depends on diversification. A network of multiple reliable corridors is increasingly the strategic approach for mitigating geopolitical and supply-chain risks.

Despite these challenges, the Middle Corridor remains a critical component of global trade, transport, and energy flows. This points to the urgent need for diversified and resilient supply chains in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.