A Risk Assessment for Armenia's 2026 Parliamentary Elections
Executive Summary
The parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, 2026 represent a critical juncture for the Republic of Armenia. They will be the first regular national elections since 2017, and follow two snap elections triggered by constitutional crises in 2018 and 2021. The legacies of the 2018 democratic revolution and the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, including the subsequent domestic instability, remain central to political discourse in the country. Electoral competition is framed predominantly around two interlinked themes: the dichotomy between the incumbent authorities and the “former” political elites, and competing visions of national security and foreign policy orientation.
The Political and Institutional Context
Armenia’s political landscape is characterized by high polarization between the ruling Civil Contract Party and opposition forces associated with former presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, including the Republican Party of Armenia, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, and the Armenia Alliance. This electoral cycle marks the entry of the Strong Armenia party, led by Russian-Armenian business tycoon Samvel Karapetyan, which is set to feature as the main contender and the center of gravity within the opposition. And while establishment actors mobilize along entrenched cleavages, a significant portion of the electorate remains disengaged.
Although the ruling party has maintained constitutional majorities at the national level, recent municipal elections have demonstrated that coordinated opposition forces can challenge its dominance. Persistent concerns about election integrity include misuse of administrative resources, opaque campaign financing, politically affiliated observer groups, and the prevalence of hate speech in politics and in campaigns.
The legal framework provides an overall enabling structure for democratic elections, including a proportional representation system with revised thresholds (4% for parties; 8% for alliances of two parties, 9% for three and 10% for alliances of more parties) and reserved minority seats. However, structural deficiencies in campaign finance transparency—particularly the delayed disclosure of party funding—create accountability gaps and elevate risks of illicit or foreign financial influence.
Foreign Policy and Regional Dynamics
Foreign policy orientation will be a central issue in the campaign. Public opinion remains divided among pro-Western, pro-Russian, and balanced approaches, with the majority favoring pragmatic engagement with both the West and Moscow. Since the 2020 war, Armenia’s cooperation with the EU has intensified, including the deployment of a civilian monitoring mission and the adoption of a Strategic Agenda framework. At the same time, opposition actors criticize the government’s recalibration of relations with the Russia, with some advocating deeper integration initiatives.
The initialing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and normalization efforts with Turkey mark significant diplomatic developments. However, demands related to constitutional amendments introduce political sensitivities that could intersect with electoral dynamics. Polarization risks undermining informed debate on peace prospects and regional normalization.
Civic Space, Media, and Information Integrity
Armenia’s civic space remains open in comparison to other states in the region, though civil society organizations face resource constraints, fragmentation, and politicization. Independent election observation missions generally retain strong professional reputations, yet face verbal attacks and competition from particular politically motivated groups.
The media environment reflects broad polarization. While Armenia ranks relatively high in press freedom indicators, financial vulnerability and donor dependency—particularly following reductions in international assistance—have strained independent outlets. Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) operations, attributed primarily to actors linked to Russia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, have employed tactics such as cloned media platforms, coordinated inauthentic behavior, and AI-generated content. At the same time, the labeling of domestic criticism as “hybrid warfare” raises concerns regarding proportionality and the safeguarding of freedom of expression.
Domestic and External Risks
Key domestic risks include entrenched polarization, misuse of administrative resources, opaque campaign finance, hate speech, and the marginalization of socioeconomic policy debates. The ongoing tensions between state authorities and the Armenian Apostolic Church further complicate the institutional environment and raise constitutional questions.
Externally, intensified FIMI campaigns, potential foreign financial interference, and the politicization of constitutional reform related to the peace process may affect electoral integrity and public trust.
Strategic Considerations
To mitigate these risks, sustained emphasis on the rule of law, institutional integrity, transparent campaign finance mechanisms, and proportionate responses to hybrid threats is essential. International partners should calibrate electoral assistance to strengthen institutions rather than political actors, support independent oversight mechanisms, and reinforce civic resilience, particularly among youth and recently naturalized citizens.
The 2026 elections will test Armenia’s capacity to consolidate democratic procedures under conditions of geopolitical flux and domestic polarization. Their conduct and aftermath will significantly shape the country’s democratic trajectory and regional positioning over the coming five-year period.
This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Union and the Transatlantic Foundation (TF). Its contents are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU and TF.