Taiwan Sparks Tensions: Inside the China-Japan Dispute

Tensions between China and Japan have spiked since November 7 when Japan’s newly elected prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said in the Japanese parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a situation threatening Japan’s survival. Under Japan's 2015 security laws, that suggests Japan's self-defense forces could be activated to respond. The following day, the Chinese consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted that China had no choice but to cut off the prime minister’s head. China-Japan relations have since plummeted. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, stated that Takaichi had “crossed a red line that should not have been touched.” China has taken retaliatory actions, restricting tourism to Japan and banning imports of Japanese seafood, among other actions. Why has Beijing reacted so strongly and how far are China-Japan relations likely to deteriorate?

Joining us today to discuss the latest episode in China-Japan relations is Professor Akio Takahara. Professor Takahara is a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Tokyo Woman’s Christian University and an Emeritus Professor at the University of Tokyo. He is also an Honorary Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[02:07] The State of China-Japan Relations Pre-Dispute
[02:49] Beijing’s Reaction and Intended Audience
[05:42] Continuity in Takaichi’s Stance 
[10:31] Why a Chinese Takeover of Taiwan is Existential to Japan 
[13:03] China’s Signals and Restraint
[16:30] Recommendations for De-escalation
[19:18] Senkaku Islands Dispute in Connection to Taiwan Dispute
[22:04] Beijing’s Potential Claims on Okinawa
[24:23] View in Japan of the US Reaction
[26:36] Takaichi’s Support in Japan