Munich 1938 In Reverse

While the Munich Security Conference (MSC) held on February 13-15 did not bring Ukraine any diplomatic breakthroughs or markedly stronger defense assistance commitments, two factors signaled a shift in how the West perceives Russia’s war on Ukraine and the path to peace.

A year after the resumption of Ukraine peace talks, European leaders underlined: Not only is Russia not ready to engage in any real talks, but it is not even at the negotiating table. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that sentiment in Munich: Contrary to US President Donald Trump’s statement just days earlier, in which he expressed confidence in Vladimir Putin’s willingness to reach a deal, Rubio admitted it was unclear whether Russia was “serious about ending the war”.

European governments increasingly see boosting support for Ukraine as an existential need for Europe itself, and they are all the more determined to fill the gap in Ukraine assistance left by the United States. Confronted with Russia’s intensifying hybrid attacks across NATO member states, Europe is viscerally aware of the growing threat of a direct conflict with Russia—against which Ukraine serves as Europe's most critical line of defense. Russia’s attacks, which aimed to discourage Europeans from supporting Ukraine, have thus had the opposite effect.

Following US Vice President JD Vance’s 2025 MSC speech, which threw a major wrench into the works of the transatlantic alliance—and after the shock of the Greenland crisis, which, in the words of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, crossed a line that cannot be uncrossed—Europe has moved from denial to acceptance that it must find a way to defend itself and Ukraine without the United States. While still attempting to mend transatlantic bridges, in 2025 Europe took unprecedented steps to boost its military spending and defense-industrial production. MSC 2026 saw a clear consensus among European partners on the urgent need for defense buildup, security independence, strategic autonomy, and radical acceleration of EU decision-making in the defense and security sector.

The MSC debates also reflected that, following the near-total suspension of US direct military assistance to Ukraine in 2025, Europe has become the main guarantor of Ukraine’s defense effort. It supports Kyiv both macro-financially, through a €90 billion loan for 2026-27, including €60 billion for defense-industrial support, and militarily, by arming Ukraine with vital military equipment and by purchasing US weapons for Ukraine through NATO’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative. Discussions at the MSC attested to the priority of expanding PURL and securing greater contributions from NATO member states and allies.

European leaders, including President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized that Europe has much to learn from Ukraine, particularly in terms of defense technology and innovation, given Ukraine’s extensive experience with the rapidly evolving drone warfare dominating the battlefield. In addition, the MSC demonstrated that Europe is intensifying partnerships with Kyiv in the area of civil protection, taking advantage of Ukraine’s experience to prepare European societies for imminent security threats. This vital area of cooperation is gaining momentum as Europe confronts its vulnerability in the face of Russia’s aggressive ambitions.

The MSC marked the rising acknowledgement on both sides of the Atlantic that, a year into US-led peace talks and four years into Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, peace remains a distant prospect. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are enduring this war’s most severe winter so far in frozen cities and towns heavily bombarded by Russia, and the civilian toll has grown by over 30% in the past 12 months. Ukraine’s partners, including those in Europe, are wary of engaging in direct conflict with Russia and are not yet ready to take more decisive steps such as providing boots on the ground. Yet there is a growing realization dominating this year’s discussions in Munich that negotiating with Russia is a dead-end strategy.

There is a mounting recognition that Russia’s goals in its war on Ukraine have not evolved. It does not want only Ukraine’s Donbas; it seeks to subjugate all of Ukraine, ending its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Given this understanding, the only way to end the war is to intensify economic and military pressure on the aggressor state. European leaders—and Rubio—echoed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement arguing that this pressure must include stronger sanctions on Russia’s war economy. In this context, a recurring message of the MSC was that the bipartisan sanctions bill to curb Kremlin oil revenue that is now moving through Congress must be passed. Ukraine’s partners also acknowledged that pressure on Russia entails dismantling its shadow fleet and arming Ukraine with the military equipment it so desperately needs—including layered air defense systems and long-range strike capabilities.

Finally, MSC 2026 elevated the discussion of Ukraine’s fast-track accession to the EU by 2027 as a security guarantee under the latest peace plan. In his speech, Zelenskyy put EU accession—which is supported by an overwhelming 83% of Ukrainians—front and center in his vision of lasting peace for Ukraine. He urged EU leaders to agree on a fixed accession date to prevent Russia from exploiting lingering uncertainty in the European political landscape and disrupting Ukraine’s accession prospects. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos recognized that the EU must find a way to close the gap between the current enlargement methodology, which was “developed for peaceful times”, and pressing geopolitical challenges to enable Ukraine’s rapid accession. While the solution has yet to be found, discussions at the MSC demonstrated that Brussels’ search for it has clearly begun.

Munich 2026 delivered no silver bullets for Ukraine, but it clearly signaled that a sense of urgency is driving European capitals. It confirmed that Europe is stepping up, and is now racing against time to figure out how to secure Ukraine in the face of persistent hostility from Moscow and unpredictability from Washington.