Rebalancing Transatlantic Relations—A Roadmap for 2030
As NATO leaders convene in The Hague this week, GMF has released a groundbreaking policy brief that charts an actionable roadmap for the transatlantic alliance through 2030. The transatlantic alliance is under strain and faces the urgent task of reinventing itself. The policy brief argues that the alliance must be rebalanced to remain politically strong and sufficiently agile to secure shared interests in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
The strength of the transatlantic alliance in the future will depend on its ability to bridge political divides, harness technological innovation, and deliver solutions to the defining challenges of the 21st century. New defense spending commitments are necessary and welcome but they are not enough. The decisions made by the United States, Europe, and their allies in the coming years will determine if the transatlantic partnership remains a pillar of global order or is sidelined by the shifting balance of power.
In this context, politicians, business leaders, and engaged citizens across the Atlantic are calling for a comprehensive reassessment of US-Europe cooperation. Responding to this imperative, GMF convened a high-level Transatlantic Taskforce to craft bold, forward-looking recommendations aimed at rebalancing and strengthening the transatlantic alliance over the next five years (2025-2030).
Co-chaired by Gen. (ret.) Curtis Scaparrotti, GMF trustee and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, and GMF President Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, the taskforce brought together a distinguished group of policymakers, military leaders, business executives, and leading experts from both sides of the Atlantic. Representing a broad spectrum of sectors, regions, generations, and political affiliations, the group met three times between February and May 2025 to discuss the alliance’s future.
Informed by these discussions, this brief presents five strategic steps to rebalance the transatlantic alliance over the next five years. These recommendations aim to lay the foundation for adaptive, resilient transatlantic cooperation in a rapidly evolving global landscape. They are:
- Implement a phased and orderly transition plan for European security. As the United States recalibrates its role in European security, a phased, coordinated transition plan is essential. A realistic mid-term target should be a 70/30 burden-sharing (Europe/United States) split, with Europe assuming greater political leadership within NATO and primary responsibility for conventional defense. A coordinated sequencing of responsibility-sharing within the alliance will guarantee deterrence and avoid capability gaps.
- Deliver high-impact joint US-European industrial projects. Reindustrialization is a priority on both sides of the Atlantic. In 2024, transatlantic trade in goods and services approached $2 trillion, and mutual direct investment reached $7.5 trillion, supporting roughly 16 million jobs. Launching high-impact joint industrial projects would not only generate more jobs and revenue but also help the alliance to become more globally competitive. Joint projects in shipbuilding, securing telecommunications networks, advanced semiconductor foundries, quantum, and new biotechnologies, can also act as building blocks to rebuild trust.
- Streamline procurement and unleash innovation. The technology race is redistributing global power. Businesses that succeed are those that can rapidly create, adopt, scale, and integrate new technologies and processes across sectors. Well-designed procurement and short permitting processes can be strategic levers to guarantee long-term competitiveness and minimize supply-chain disruption. The United States and Europe must prioritize procurement reform to exclude high-risk vendors and streamline licensing and approval procedures to unlock innovation and sharpen their industrial and technological edge.
- Showcase the domestic benefits of transatlantic competitiveness. The alliance must be reframed around pragmatic cooperation that delivers tangible economic and strategic gains. During periods of tension, both sides should adopt a policy of “constructive hibernation”, minimizing public criticism to keep disagreements from undermining essential collaboration.
- Forge strategic partnerships beyond the transatlantic core. To secure their interests, the United States and Europe must be able to offer attractive deals to countries beyond the alliance’s traditional core, focused on infrastructure, technology, and supply-chain resilience, along with traditional security guarantees.
Transatlantic allies share vital strategic interests, making close cooperation logical and indispensable. GMF’s roadmap provides a blueprint for adaptive, resilient transatlantic cooperation through 2030 and beyond.