Stuck in Hostile Waters

Billions of dollars in undersea internet cables connecting Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia are currently dependent on two active conflict zones: the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran threatens to deal a critical blow to connectivity in the region. 

To date, there has been no deliberate attack against undersea cables, but the conflict is already halting several projects in the Persian Gulf. In mid-March, Meta announced the suspension of work on the 2Africa system, one of the key arteries of the global internet. This infrastructure, linking three continents and the Middle East, is designed to carry data traffic for more than 3 billion people, but the current geopolitical context threatens its realization. Meta’s suspension of the 2Africa Pearl portion, connecting countries around the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, and India to the broader network, comes only months after the company announced significant delays to the Red Sea segment due to Houthi threats. The conflict has thus created a second major chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, compounding the existing one in the Red Sea, and throwing the future of internet connectivity across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia into uncertainty.

The situation also threatens the repairability of existing infrastructure. In 2024, a damaged cargo vessel hit by Houthis in the Red Sea severed three cables with its anchor before sinking. Repairs took six months due to continued Houthi attacks on transiting vessels. With the Persian Gulf now a no-go zone for commercial vessels and tensions potentially rising againin the Red Sea, any future damage could take far longer to fix, requiring extensive data traffic rerouting. The result would be internet degradation in the broader region. Even after the conflict concludes, unexploded debris and sea mines deployed to block the Strait of Hormuz will make resuming cable deployment and repairs an intricate challenge.

Laying cables through the Red Sea has been the most direct and cost-effective way to connect Europe with the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Routing through the Persian Gulf was considered a safe alternative amid Red Sea tensions. Now, following the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, both options may be deemed too risky. If the conflict drags on and infrastructure such as datacenters and cable landing stations become targets, new routes bypassing the Middle East would become more appealing and hyperscaler corporations may reconsider their investments in the region.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.