Toward a Marshall Plan for Ukraine
Emergency assistance for Ukraine was and is a necessity dictated by Russia’s war. Beginning with the London Recovery Conference in June 2023, the Ukraine alliance should adopt a more strategic view of Ukraine’s reconstruction, with an eye toward mid- and long-term planning. Five key enablers of reconstruction should be prioritized:
At least initially, donors need to share the risk with investors and provide war insurance. A multilateral investment trust fund should be created to provide that insurance and complement national efforts. The fund should be open only to investors from countries that aid Ukraine during the war.
Ukraine’s shattered energy infrastructure should be rebuilt in accordance with the EU decarbonization goals, allowing the country’s economy to leapfrog into a net-zero future. Ukraine should join EU flagship climate policies soon and ahead of full bloc membership.
Frozen public funds should be temporarily invested, with the proceeds made available to Ukraine, and an international claims conference should be prepared to make Russia pay, albeit in a legal and transparent way, to directly aid those affected by Russian aggression.
Transparency and accountability
Continued aid must be conditioned upon continued anti-corruption reform. To ensure implementation, civil society needs to participate in a reconstruction process that adheres to decentralization principles.
The new G7 Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform for Ukraine needs to be better equipped to succeed. Its capacity for strategic planning should be added, and its leadership structure should be rethought.
Reversing Ukraine’s economic trajectory, uplifting its people, and enabling the country to integrate successfully into the European and world economy requires sustained, long-term growth. The recommendations in this report are enablers that will help to set Ukraine on the road to rapid recovery.
Creating War Insurance and Incentivizing InvestmentExpand All
4. Expand Export Credits
Enhance the resources and broaden the scope of national export credit agencies.
Leapfrogging Into a Net-Zero UkraineExpand All
7. Create an Electricity Market
Extend the future EU CBAM to cover Ukrainian electricity exports to the EU.
Making Russia Pay the Legal WayExpand All
15. Be Realistic About Timeline
Do not expect Russian assets to quickly contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction.