Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow, joined GMF part-time in September 2020, while also remaining a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington, DC-based macroeconomic thinktank he has been employed by since 2002. Before 2002, Jacob worked with the Danish Ministry of Defense, the United Nations in Iraq, and in the private financial sector. He is a graduate of the Danish Army's Special School of Intelligence and Linguistics with the rank of first lieutenant; the University of Aarhus in Aarhus, Denmark; the Columbia University in New York; and received his PhD from Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. Jacob’s current research focuses on European economies and structural and institutional reform, the macroeconomic impact of climate change and climate mitigation, U.S.-EU-China economic competition, immigration, foreign direct investment trends and estimations, fiscal and monetary policy, pension systems, and demographic trends.

 

 

Media Mentions

“This was really a continuity election at the European level,” Dr. Kirkegaard says. “But what will be different, is that it’s clear these elections have caused significant shifts in a number of the national political systems in member states.”
“She is in firm control of Italian domestic politics and she’s looking to wield extra influence at EU level, where Italy has historically punched below its weight,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a Brussels-based senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank.
Because the EU as a whole is an economy roughly the size of the United States, “that gives individual member states bigger weight internationally, especially Germany,” says Dr. Kirkegaard. “It’s always this trade-off that you are constrained by the EU on some things, but you enable on other issues.”
If you’re Vladimir Putin, you’re saying, well, my strategic decision to try to hold on longer than the west is working.
“Europe has moved on,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow in the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund, a think tank. “People here agree Cameron was probably one of the most disastrous prime ministers that the UK has had for many years, given how his premiership ended. But that’s not necessarily something that will jeopardise his new role.”
We basically have this sort of old trade dispute from the Trump era, where Trump put in place these tariffs on European steel and aluminium that were suspended a while ago, but they're only suspended.
Pese al optimismo de la política, Jacob Kirkegaard, del centro de estudios German Marshall Fund, considera que Global Gateway no es una alternativa sólida a la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china y no puede competir con esa iniciativa de Pekín. Afirma que la estrategia de la Unión Europea no está teniendo los resultados concretos necesarios para ser “una competidora seria” ante la Nueva Ruta de la Seda. Para Kirkegaard, el “problema” es que el club comunitario “no suele querer prestar” para que se puedan realizar los proyectos que los países de bajos ingresos desean construir. Alberto Ángel Fernández, Ralph Gonsalves, Charles Michel y Ursula von der Leyen, en la cumbre de la CELACEFE/EPA/Olivier Matthys No obstante, el analista manifiesta que Global Gateway continuará existiendo en el medio y largo plazo, pero “principalmente como postureo ético” del club comunitario. “Realmente no abaratará las infraestructuras para los mercados emergentes ni reducirá la influencia de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china”, comenta sobre Global Gateway. En opinión de Kirkegaard, la repercusión de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda china disminuirá “debido a la menor voluntad china de financiarla, no a las acciones de la UE”. “La infraestructura de la Unión Europea seguirá siendo financiada principalmente a través del Banco Europeo de Inversiones en todo el mundo”, expone.
Translated from Spanish
“The summit outcome reflects the basic reality that NATO is a U.S. security commitment to, as the strongest military power in the world, defend other eligible countries. Hence NATO will always only move at the speed of Washington, which right now is fixated on China in the long-run,” Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNBC via email.
Translated from English
Sure, if Trump were to win the presidency it would be a huge political bonus for Putin — don't get me wrong — but would it stop American weapons supplies to Ukraine or block all financial aid? No, I don't think so.
This could be a significant political crisis for the coalition. But green issues were at the centre of the election. I think it's going to be very difficult for Scholz to renege on it.
Ukraine needs more... not in three months, it needs them now…so there is clearly in my opinion a need to continue the acceleration of weapons supplies for Ukraine.
If the administration is unable to get this through Congress – their signature international agreement – this would be devastating for the Treasury’s international credentials.
Brussels faces no political consequences from potentially rationing gas, but it can be deadly to a national government. Many member states have also diversified away from Russian gas, while Germany of course has not, and politically must pay a price.
Russia has already stopped sending gas to Finland, Poland and Bulgaria over their refusal to pay in roubles. And now there is a “very strong risk” that Moscow will follow suit with the whole continent and cut gas supplies completely before the winter
And now there is a "very strong risk" that Moscow will do the same to the entire continent and completely cut off gas supplies before winter.
Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, cut deliveries in June, and if they are reduced further, German industries may soon confront fuel shortages that will compel them to scale back. I don’t think there are that many other European countries that have to do that.
As such, in my opinion, over the medium and long run (Croatia) will benefit from much lower levels of inflation, monetary stability, lower interest rates and of course the political influence that being a member of the euro gives you relatively to not being a member.
And it is clear that the Russian invasion has led to a more general EU re-evaluation of its economic relationship also with China, especially in Germany. ... There is an unwillingness now to become similarly dependent on Chinese market access, as has been the case with Russian energy. This will greatly benefit Lithuania in garnering the full support of the EU in confronting China.
If approved, this would be a strong move by Chancellor Olaf Scholz as it would put Germany on par with Europe’s biggest weapons suppliers for Ukraine.
This highlights how Russia’s atrocious actions in Ukraine have forced previous neutral countries to commit fully to NATO in the ‘you are either fully with us, or we will not protect you.
The war came at a time when Europe and the United States were enjoying a tremendous recovery.
Translated from Greek
Often under these type of sanctions, cultural items are exempt because they are non-pecuniary and they are not related directly to the war effort.
There will be investor lawsuits. They will go after Russian government assets in Western jurisdictions. So, this could potentially be a further isolation of the Russian economy in general.
The Russian government would, in my opinion, be compelled to start printing large amounts of new roubles with the risk of inciting significant additional inflation in Russia.
Chancellor Scholz, in my opinion, made a terrible strategic move by ruling out energy sanctions because he basically invited this action by Putin. Now, either he’s going to have to break existing sanctions [by dealing in Russian currency] or he’s going to have to do what he didn’t want to do before, namely, stop – or de facto stop – energy exports. Putin is basically forcing Germany to choose between potentially getting no gas or breaking the sanctions.
[New Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s] forceful policy shifts are a firm repudiation of the core of Merkel’s foreign economic policy.
The war happened right at a time when Europe and the US had a recovery that was going really well. Projections in Europe were among the highest...(in) the last 20 years.
[An important question will be whether Russia retaliates by banning G-7 exports to Russia.] If so, Russia would ironically be helping isolate itself further and reduce trade with the West.
The damage is done. But at least the war finally may have shamed the relevant national governments into ending this corrupt practice.
After the American and British moves on their gas and oil imports, the political costs to Germany of blocking the embargo against Russia and a joint loan to move towards energy independence are, in my view, unsustainable.
I don't think Russia will be exporting much oil and gas two weeks from now, I think the politics of that will move very fast.
[New measures to increase asylum budget] is billions and will require more EU funds as we are talking about an EU decision about EU borders.
There is the EU’s arrival on the scene as a funder of lethal weaponry for a nation at war, a quantum leap beyond anything we have seen.
[This development] could force companies to have two separate supply chains to serve each one.
Export controls on technology might directly impact Russia's military if a protracted conflict left it short of the chips that go into missiles.
I actually think it's a strategically wise move by Macron because all public polling in France suggests that the vast majority, more than two-thirds of the French people, support him in this tough line against the unvaccinated anti-vaxxers.
The legacy of the pandemic is that we really know now that if the crisis is big enough then common European debt might at least be part of the solution and my bet come two, three, four years from now [is] the climate situation will reach that political level.
The demands of the Russian government are totally unacceptable, it will probably come down to an ultimatum.
Translated from German
[It’s] not just about being vaccinated, having something stuck — a needle stuck in your shoulder, but telling the [German] government that you're not vaccinated. There are obvious historical reasons for that.
We are still in the window of opportunity until, say, May or June, after which I guess the midterms kill prospects for congressional passage, which the rest of the world will not appreciate.
The EU may just move forward without a pan-European leader like Merkel, who needed a few years and specific conditions to grow into that role herself. Historically, it’s the norm to be without anyone in that role. We probably won’t see another major European leader who stays in office for more than eight years, let alone 16, as was the case with Merkel.
We got this scientific miracle. We had a vaccine that was available six to nine months earlier than anybody had really believed in 2020...What that meant was that the second half of 2021 saw basically a general reopening in all of the advanced economies, and that certainly was a massive positive surprise.
Companies want an open trading system that has a degree of predictability. They may not like a 15% tax, but they understand that the status quo is not on offer. The alternative is infinitely worse.
It is 'the right decision' for both environmental and political reasons if the commission announces that nuclear is relatively clean.
[Putin] needs to sell. Yes, he may be playing the European gas markets but he is also responding to his own weakness… He does not have an interest in forcing an accelerated decarbonisation in Europe.
It’s like using your credit card and then not paying the bill at the end of the month. It’s political malpractice.
“I think the outcome of the [German] election was that broadly pro-European parties did very well. I mean, it was the far-left and the far-right that lost significantly, and then you had a shift from the incumbent CDU to the more pro-European, at least in fiscal terms, Greens and the SPD.
[The ongoing energy crisis] makes it even more important that the Spanish government finds other sources of financing.
The United States got a free pass over the summer, even as the situation in many parts of the country deteriorated dramatically.