What to Watch at the UN General Assembly

The Transatlantic Community: New Tests Are Ahead

By Ian O. Lesser

This year’s UN General Assembly (UNGA) will put the divide on many—but not all—of the most pressing issues between the United States and its allies on full display.

In the run-up to the gathering, several US partners, notably France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Portugal announced their recognition of a Palestinian state. Others including Belgium have offered conditional recognition. Germany and Italy have stood aside, as Washington makes its opposition clear. The accelerating trend toward recognition reflects frustration with the war in Gaza and a desire to support an eventual two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But it also reflects domestic political pressures, above all in France. The obvious transatlantic divide on the issue will only reinforce the negative drift of European public attitudes toward the United States.

In contrast, there may be some convergence on the war in Ukraine and policy toward Iran. On the latter issue, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are almost certain to announce the imposition of “snap-back” sanctions over Tehran’s failure to comply with UN-mandated nuclear inspections. The transatlantic allies will be in essential alignment here.

The recent Russian violations of Polish, Estonian, and Romanian airspace will also be on the agenda. Observers will watch for any tangible shift by the Trump administration toward a more hawkish stance toward Moscow, and remarks at UNGA will provide a strong sign of Washington’s intentions.

The biggest and potentially most divisive questions, however, will revolve around the future of the UN itself. The White House has made no secret of its skepticism of the institution. The United States has announced its withdrawal from several key UN agencies and may reduce or end American funding for UN operations.

More broadly, many UNGA participants will ask if the organization can continue to function without substantial reform. And any talk of decamping UN headquarters to another location will please China and other US adversaries. A move is unlikely, but many will see even a debate on the issue as a blow to American prestige and influence in troubled and increasingly dangerous times.

France: Taking the Initiative

By Martin Quencez

The 2025 UN General Assembly will mark an important moment for French diplomacy. President Emmanuel Macron is set to officially recognize the Palestine as a state, making France the first G7 country to take this step. The decision comes alongside a joint initiative with Saudi Arabia aimed at preserving the two-state solution amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. France is signaling that it still intends to play an active role in shaping the future of the Middle East, while more broadly reasserting its diplomatic relevance on the global stage.

Following France’s announcement, several other Western countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, are expected to follow suit. The joint initiative with Saudi Arabia also calls for the disarmament of Hamas and its withdrawal from Gaza, with the support of the Arab League. For Paris, forging consensus around this language was crucial: It is seen as a vindication of the initiative and of France’s ability to set an agenda and inspire others to act. This is central to France’s self-image at a time when political instability, slow growth, and a heavy public deficit constrain its economic and political power. Despite the circumstances, the country still seeks to punch above its weight by taking political risks and using its diplomatic leverage.

For Macron, the decision also has a deeply personal dimension. After more than seven years in power, the question of legacy has become pressing. His activism on the world stage has been undeniable since 2017, but the record of concrete results is mixed. Grand speeches and high-profile summits have often faded without lasting impact. The recognition of the Palestine as a state, backed by a broader diplomatic coalition, may well shape how history judges his presidency.

The long-term consequences for the war and the broader Middle East remain uncertain, but in the short term the initiative stands as a diplomatic victory for Paris. It demonstrates France’s ability to partner with Saudi Arabia on one of the world’s most contentious issues while rallying like-minded democracies to a common cause. The decision is likely to provoke strong reactions from Israel and possibly the United States, yet it positions Paris to lead within Europe rather than passively respond to unfolding events. At a time when domestic politics increase the impression of decline, France has chosen to seize the initiative—and Macron intends to make sure this is remembered. 

Türkiye: Erdoğan Will Challenge Injustice

By Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı

Each September, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan treats the UN General Assembly as an opportunity not to outline Türkiye’s foreign policy, but to send strong messages about the shortcomings of global governance. His speeches are typically sharpened with memorable lines—none more famous than his motto, “the world is bigger than five,” aimed at the UN Security Council’s permanent members. UNGA, in short, is where Erdoğan positions Türkiye as both a challenger of the status quo and a defender of the underrepresented.

At this year’s UNGA-80, marking the organization’s 80th anniversary, that approach will no doubt continue. Erdoğan is likely to focus on three main topics: Israel, UN reform, and the war in Ukraine.

The first theme will be Israel. Erdoğan has long accused Israel of collective punishment, illegal settlement expansion, and violations of international law, and he is expected to argue that it is committing war crimes in Gaza. Türkiye is also highly critical of Israel’s attacks against other countries in the region and accuses it of expansionism.

Türkiye has condemned not only Israel’s government but also those states that shield it from accountability, particularly permanent members of the UN Security Council who wield their veto to block action. Erdoğan is likely to call for sanctions, demand accountability mechanisms, and insist that silence in the face of Israel’s actions makes the international community complicit. Beyond humanitarian appeals, he will push harder for full recognition of Palestinian statehood, framing it as the only path to justice. Without recognition, he will argue, the cycle of occupation, violence, and impunity will continue unabated. Now that he will be hosted by US President Donald Trump at the White House after the UNGA, on September 25, he may avoid direct criticism of the United States.

UN reform will also be high on Erdoğan’s agenda. The anniversary session provides Erdoğan a stage to renew his central argument that the Security Council’s composition is outdated and unjust. By endorsing the Secretary-General’s “UN 80” initiative, Türkiye will portray itself as a champion of multipolarity, demanding reforms that empower middle powers and the “Global South”.

Finally, although Russia’s war against Ukraine will not dominate his address, Erdoğan can be expected to remind the world of Ankara’s mediating role, from keeping channels open with both Kyiv and Moscow to brokering the Black Sea grain corridor agreement. He will reassert Ankara’s willingness to play a role as mediator for peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Through these themes, Erdoğan will again use UNGA to portray Türkiye as a challenger of injustice and champion of multipolarity.

 

Ukraine: It’s a Matter of Principle

By Olena Prokopenko

As the 80th UN General Assembly convenes, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will return to the world stage with a sharpened message: Ukraine’s fight is not just for its survival, but for the principles that were enshrined in the UN Charter at the end of World War II.

Zelenskyy’s fundamental point remains that Russia’s intensifying aggression against Ukrainians, including daily missile and drone attacks, goes against everything that the UN stands for. The institution was established precisely so that no one would use force to change international borders or commit genocide of innocent civilians.

The Ukrainian president will likely thank the Trump administration for its diplomatic efforts, but signal that a stronger stance against the Russian aggressor is necessary to stop the killing. US President Donald Trump’s avoidance of forceful steps against Russia and his seeming reluctance to provide stronger support to Ukraine have allowed Putin to continue the attacks and test the West’s limits. Russia’s recent drone intrusion into Polish airspace and fighter jet intrusion into Estonian airspace, which were clearly aimed at testing Western resolve, are testimony that Russia’s terror is starting to spill over to the rest of Europe.

Drawing on his earlier statement, Zelenskyy will remind world leaders that it is still possible to end the war before 2026. International partners must get serious about putting concerted political and economic pressure on Russia and seizing the cashflow fueling its war machine.

Zelenskyy will reiterate that Russia’s agreement to a (temporary) ceasefire is the first step toward peace. He will insist on robust security guarantees, including a clear path to NATO membership for Ukraine, Western troops on the ground following the peace agreement, and a new framework for Ukraine’s long-term defense cooperation with the United States, Europe, and other Western allies. 
The Ukrainian leader will also use the UNGA speech to rally support among the states of the “Global South”. India, for example, has recently drawn closer to Russia and China, ostensibly in response to Trump’s tariffs.

In a moral challenge to those still close to Moscow, Zelenskyy will point to Russia’s mass atrocities and the genocidal practice of abducting Ukrainian children from their families in the occupied territories.

The speech could galvanize support ahead of a critical winter, amid risks of donor fatigue and geopolitical distractions. As the world marks the UN’s 80th anniversary, Zelenskyy’s message will test whether the institution can still live up to its founding promise: to restore peace and uphold international law against any aggressor.

Romania: A New Foreign Policy Agenda

By Clara Volintiru

The dynamic and forthright Minister of Foreign Affairs Oana Toiu will deliver Romania’s first UNGA address under the administration of President Nicușor Dan. The new administration is advancing a foreign policy agenda that moves away from a national-interest-centered approach toward emphatically tying Romania’s own security to that of the broader region, including Ukraine, Moldova, and the whole of Europe. With its clear focus on deep and actionable partnerships, Romania now moves closer to becoming a security provider in its regio—and hopes to take part in shaping a shared European security agenda. Toiu will likely reiterate Romania’s involvement and support—alongside that of international partners—for neighboring Moldova and Ukraine. She will also emphasize the importance of joint efforts for peace and for ending the Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, with its regional and global implications.

Toiu will use the UNGA stage to address Russia’s deliberate and provocative violations of airspace and its flagrant breaches of international law in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. She will likely also spotlight Russia’s hybrid campaigns in Moldova, condemning systematic propaganda, disinformation, and interference aimed at destabilizing the country. By raising this issue at UNGA, Bucharest seeks to bring international attention to Moldova’s vulnerabilities and align them with broader concerns about hybrid threats to democracy. Russia’s potential success in interfering with Moldova’s elections has far-reaching consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and global security, as it will use the country as a test case to launch its hybrid war tactics throughout Europe and elsewhere.

The foreign minister will also address the situation in the Middle East. With a strong partnership with Israel, but also a long-term Palestinian population on its territory, Romania will highlight the importance of efforts to secure the release of hostages, deliver large-scale humanitarian assistance in Gaza, and achieve a lasting peace in the Middle East based on the two-state principle—ensuring regional security while excluding Hamas and other terrorist organizations.

Another key point on both the domestic and foreign agenda of Nicușor Dan’s administration is upholding the rule of law and institutional reforms. At UNGA, Toiu will likely support UN reform, backing ongoing processes to make the institution more effective, representative, and capable of responding to today’s global challenges.

Overall, Romania will present itself as a committed defender of international law, a frontline state in Europe’s security architecture, and a strong advocate for reforming the UN to better address hybrid threats, wars of aggression, and the global quest for sustainable peace