Deterrence and Defense in 2030

Deterrence and defense is one of NATO’s core tasks, and central to its purpose. In recent years, NATO has taken important steps to boost its deterrence and defense. But increasing geopolitical competition and global challenges like climate change, hybrid threats, and emerging and disruptive technologies are creating new demands on NATO’s ability to effectively meet challenges across domains and regions. More conventional challenges require sustained investments in capabilities, readiness, and infrastructure. Hybrid threats require Allies to think holistically about security and defense and to consider how to best respond to and deter aggression in non-traditional domains.

In this complex context, how should NATO’s next strategic concept address deterrence and defense considering these challenges? What new strategic thinking is required, and where is added common investment essential? How will NATO balance conventional deterrence and the need to consider new domains and use asymmetric responses to bolster the credibility of NATO’s deterrence? Finally, what components of NATO’s approach to deterrence and defense need to be either reemphasized or fundamentally rethought?