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Defense Cooperation Security and Geopolitics Strategic Infrastructure

Erdogan’s positive remarks about Hamas have made it more difficult for the Biden administration to pass Turkiye’s F-16 request through Congress. Both Biden and Erdogan can deliver on these two issues if they choose to put enough political capital into the process, but Turkiye has local elections in five months, and the US is approaching a presidential election cycle,” he said. “We are closer than ever to see Sweden as a new NATO ally, but a little more political will is needed not only in Ankara but also Washington,” he added."”

Foreign Policy Security and Geopolitics

If the Turkish public starts to believe that Turkey doesn’t care for the human rights of Palestinians, then actually there could be such a strong backlash in the Turkish public that the Turkish government [would] abandon its constructive approach. So there is a certain limit to what the Turkish government can prevent in Turkey.”

Security and Geopolitics Trade, Economics, and Business Ukraine Reconstruction

Turkey’s trade with Russia nearly doubled last year to $68.2 billion, feeding U.S. suspicions that Moscow is using Ankara to bypass Western sanctions. Turkey says the increase is largely due to higher energy costs. Their relationship is often characterized as transactional. Despite being on opposing sides in fighting in Syria, Libya and the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, they have cooperated in areas like energy, defense, diplomacy, tourism and trade. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said the relationship’s dual nature dates back to the sultans and czars. “Sometimes they compete, sometimes they cooperate. At other times they both compete and cooperate at the same time,” he said. While the pendulum seems to have swung in Ankara’s favor for now, Unluhisarcikli noted the Kremlin has a few levers to pull, such as canceling a deferment of gas payments or removing financial capital for the Akkuyu nuclear plant being built by Russia. Moscow also could hurt Turkey by restricting Russian tourists, who visit in greater numbers than any other nationality. offering a steady flow of cash. “How much weaker the relationship gets depends on how Russia responds to Turkey getting closer to the West,” he said.”

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