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Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

I doubt Xi's top concerns are related to foreign policy. As Xi is looking toward the Party Congress, I think he is most concerned about putting his own people on the Politburo Standing Committee and the Politburo. ”

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

I do not see any evidence that a decision has been made to use force against Taiwan. I see substantial evidence to the contrary: that China has not made a decision but that it has not ruled it out.”

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

It’s impossible to do an accurate assessment of how well the PLA performed in conducting joint operations. It’s not clear who was doing command and control … They rehearsed imposing a blockade and carrying out strikes on the island, but the exercises didn’t contain all the elements that would be needed to invade the island.”

Foreign Policy

Prospects are extremely low for holding talks on risk reduction measures or stability. The specific talks called off this week would resume over time, but right now, China has to signal toughness and resolve.”

Defense Cooperation Foreign Policy

Over the coming days and months, China will conduct provocative and escalatory exercises that may include [more] live missile fires in Taiwan’s air space. It may try to flip one of the 14 remaining countries that still recognize Taiwan diplomatically. And it will put more economic pressure on Taiwan. Beijing will assess the impact of its actions and warnings on the US and Taiwan. If they believe that the message hasn’t been heard and if they don’t see some restraint, I expect they will take more aggressive measures.”

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