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Democracy Elections Security and Geopolitics War in Ukraine

Leading security and defense expert, Michal Baranowski, told the Associated Press news agency that Poland gave Ukraine what it could early in the war. With no plans for incoming shipments soon, Baranowski doesn't see Ukraine's fighting capabilities threatened in the near future — but still, he considers Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's comments troubling for Kyiv as it seeks to shore up Western support in the war. The message is very bad, both for Poland's reputation but also because Poland has been one of the chief advocates of military aid to Ukraine. Saying Poland will not be sending more weapons means that Poland can no longer play this role.”

NATO Security and Geopolitics

So when Ukraine applied for NATO membership a few months after the outbreak of war, he reacted cautiously. "Ukraine's accession would be perceived by Russia as a confrontation," he told Le Monde newspaper in December. "Macron has long been convinced that you have to shape European security with Russia and not against Russia," says Gesine Weber. She is a France expert at the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund. "France therefore rejected Ukrainian accession for a long time because they feared it could be perceived as a threat by Moscow." (...) This has led to a huge outcry among France's allies and shown Macron that he is not getting any closer to his goal of a sovereign Europe by telling the press his uncoordinated, abstract ideas," said France expert Weber. "He realized that he can show leadership at the same time and get closer to his goal of a sovereign Europe by speaking out in favor of Ukraine joining NATO." (…) "Giving Ukraine security guarantees outside of NATO in the long term would also be damn expensive for France," Weber says. At the same time, Macron's confidence in NATO as a guarantor of security has grown. While he declared it "brain dead" in 2017, he said in May that Article Five is having its full effect. "It keeps Russia in check," Macron said. Letting Kiev share in it is thus the more favorable alternative for Paris.”

Translated from German
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