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Read the latest news and commentary from the German Marshall Fund.
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected]
Or contact Angelina Sutalo (Europe), Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected] and Irvin McCullough (United States), Press Officer, at 202-876-6605 or [email protected]
For press inquiries, please contact us by email at [email protected]
Or contact Angelina Sutalo (Europe), Senior Press Officer, at +32 486 514 479 or [email protected] and Irvin McCullough (United States), Press Officer, at 202-876-6605 or [email protected]
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“ I doubt Xi's top concerns are related to foreign policy. As Xi is looking toward the Party Congress, I think he is most concerned about putting his own people on the Politburo Standing Committee and the Politburo. ”
“ I believe that they think that if they just let this continue, that there will come a time in the very near future that they will have to use force. And I believe that, for lots of reasons, they’re not ready to do so.”
“ I do not see any evidence that a decision has been made to use force against Taiwan. I see substantial evidence to the contrary: that China has not made a decision but that it has not ruled it out.”
“ It’s impossible to do an accurate assessment of how well the PLA performed in conducting joint operations. It’s not clear who was doing command and control … They rehearsed imposing a blockade and carrying out strikes on the island, but the exercises didn’t contain all the elements that would be needed to invade the island.”
“ Prospects are extremely low for holding talks on risk reduction measures or stability. The specific talks called off this week would resume over time, but right now, China has to signal toughness and resolve.”
“ Over the coming days and months, China will conduct provocative and escalatory exercises that may include [more] live missile fires in Taiwan’s air space. It may try to flip one of the 14 remaining countries that still recognize Taiwan diplomatically. And it will put more economic pressure on Taiwan. Beijing will assess the impact of its actions and warnings on the US and Taiwan. If they believe that the message hasn’t been heard and if they don’t see some restraint, I expect they will take more aggressive measures.”
“ The Chinese feel that if they don’t act, that the United States is going to continue to slice the salami to take incremental actions toward supporting Taiwan independence. China does feel under pressure to do more to signal that this is an issue in which China cannot compromise.”
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