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“ As elsewhere in the world, all politics is local. Turkish foreign policy has been excessively driven by domestic political considerations and this case is no different.
“ Turkey is already in a tense relationship with Russia over Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province and would not like to add a new layer to these tensions. At a time when Turkey is trying to improve relations with U.S., it would not like to introduce a new headache.
“ The Grey Wolves is an organization that is directly affiliated with the Nationalist Movement Party, which is President Erdogan’s alliance partner. Therefore, the Turkish government cannot turn a blind eye to this development.
“ At the individual level of analysis, President Erdogan perceives a threat from the US thinking that it is intentionally undermining him with the ultimate goal of removing him from power. This frustration and threat perception leads President Erdogan to seek a counterbalancing alliance with Russia against the U.S.
“ [If the Greens particpate in government, one can expect] concerns about domestic developments in Turkey, media freedom and other areas can be expected to receive more attention.
“ Ankara sees [Afghanistan] as a topic that proves that the West still needs Turkey, or the West still benefits from cooperation with Turkey.”
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